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NHL

Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Utah Mammoth7–4–0 · HomeTampa Bay Lightning7–2–0 · Away
51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%UTA

Utah Mammoth to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.94 · projected 3–2

Utah Mammoth are the pick at 51% on the moneyline, with a projected 3–2 final score against Tampa Bay Lightning.

After 60 minutes

UTA
41%
Tied → OT
22%
TAM
38%

Game flow

UTA 3.3 · TAM 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds
  • Moneyline (incl. overtime)Utah Mammoth51%1.94
  • Regulation result (60 minutes)Utah Mammoth41%2.47
  • Puck lineTampa Bay Lightning +1.570%1.43
  • Total goalsUnder 6.550%2.00
  • Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Utah Mammoth

Last game: Oct 22

70VejmelkaProjected
CK9KellerLWVT16TrocheckCDG11GuentherRW

1st line

6:44 together at 5-on-5

#PlayerTOIGAP
9Clayton Keller LW20:094711
16Vincent Trocheck C17:39325
11Dylan Guenther RW20:10459

25 points this season

Goalies: Karel Vejmelka #70 (Projected) · Sebastian Cossa #33 (Backup)

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last game: Oct 23

35HildebyProjected
21PointLW59GuentzelC93GoncalvesRW

1st line

7:52 together at 5-on-5

#PlayerTOIGAP
21Brayden Point LW20:50178
59Jake Guentzel C22:126410
93Gage Goncalves RW17:59011

19 points this season

Goalies: Dennis Hildeby #35 (Projected) · Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (22)

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Karel Vejmelka UTA

.874 save percentage

3.04 GAA · 5–3–0 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Dennis Hildeby TAM

.920 save percentage

2.01 GAA · 2–0–0 · 2 starts

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included
PlayerChanceFair odds

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)
All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Utah Mammoth are the pick at 51% on the moneyline, with a projected 3–2 final score against Tampa Bay Lightning.

This is as tight as a matchup gets. Utah Mammoth carry a 51% win probability on home ice, and the model's most likely scoreline is 3–2. Tampa Bay Lightning actually rate slightly better once opponents are accounted for, +0.22 goals per game against an average team versus +0.20 for Utah Mammoth, a gap of just 0.02 goals. Home ice, worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, is what tips the balance toward the home side.

Form points in different directions. Utah Mammoth have won 3 of their last 5 but have been leaky, scoring 3.8 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 with a far tighter profile, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.8. The table is level between them too: Utah Mammoth are 4th in the Western Conference and Tampa Bay Lightning are 4th in the Eastern Conference.

Inside regulation the model gives Utah Mammoth 40% to win in 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 22%, which sends the game to overtime and possibly a shootout. The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, Utah Mammoth are priced at 50% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers. With the ratings this close, the home-ice edge is doing most of the work behind the lean.

The case for Tampa Bay Lightning rests on the underlying numbers and recent defensive record, which are marginally better than Utah Mammoth's. The case for Utah Mammoth rests on playing at home in a game the model treats as close to even. Neither side has a clear structural advantage, which is why the win probability sits barely above a coin flip and the lean should be treated with care.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits below our 6.5 total goals line, and the under is priced at 51% with 6.4 projected. On the puck line, Utah Mammoth −1.5 comes in at 29%, meaning the model expects a one-goal finish far more often than a multi-goal home win. The 3–2 projection is consistent with a tight game decided late, which is why the moneyline lean is modest rather than confident.

Utah Mammoth to win, overtime and shootout included, at 51%, with a projected score of 3–2.

Team leaders

Utah MammothThis seasonTampa Bay Lightning

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (10 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits (2)

Recent form

Utah Mammoth

L3–5W5–4L2–6W4–2W5–4

Tampa Bay Lightning

L3–6W6–2W4–2W4–3L1–4

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day