Sweden2026 seasonSHL predictions
- Games played
- 77/364
- Teams
- 14
- Home wins
- 66%
- Avg goals
- 5
Next up, Saturday, October 24 — SHL: 7 games
The strongest pick is Farjestad against Vaxjo: 71% to win, with a projected 3–2. The closest call is Linkoping vs Orebro, 53% for Linkoping and a projected 3–2. The highest projected total is 5 goals, in Malmo vs Timrå.
Every game below has a win probability (overtime and shootout included), a projected score and lines for the puck line and total goals; where bookmakers price a game, the pick leans toward their consensus. Over the 2023–24 season the model called 60% of SHL winners (411 games), against 57% for always backing the home team.
Next games
- Malmo3Timrå2Malmo63%LeanLean
Lean: Malmo at 63%, projected 3–2. Market odds for the pick: 1.56.
- IF Bjorkloven2Skellefteå3Skellefteå65%StrongStrong
Strong pick: Skellefteå at 65%, projected 2–3, a 1-goal margin. Market odds for the pick: 1.33.
- Linkoping3Orebro2Linkoping53%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: Linkoping edge it at 53%, projected 3–2. Market odds for the pick: 1.73.
- Farjestad3Vaxjo2Farjestad71%StrongStrong
Strong pick: Farjestad at 71%, projected 3–2, a 1-goal margin. Market odds for the pick: 1.36.
- Brynas3Rögle2Brynas57%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: Brynas edge it at 57%, projected 3–2. Market odds for the pick: 1.65.
- HV 712Frölunda3Frölunda56%Toss-upToss-up
Close to a coin flip: Frölunda edge it at 56%, projected 2–3. Market odds for the pick: 1.65.
- Luleå3Djurgarden2Luleå66%StrongStrong
Strong pick: Luleå at 66%, projected 3–2, a 1-goal margin. Market odds for the pick: 1.40.
Recent results
How the SHL season works
The SHL is Sweden's top league: fourteen clubs play 52 rounds from September to March. A regulation win is worth three points, a win after overtime or a shootout two, and a loss after overtime or a shootout one.
The top six go straight to the quarter-finals, seventh to tenth play a short series for the last two places, and the playoffs are best of seven. The bottom of the table can lose its place to the best of HockeyAllsvenskan.
Using the SHL picks
Each game shows the moneyline (overtime and shootout included), the regulation result with the draw, a puck line and a total. In Sweden the three-way regulation result is the market most bettors know, so it is shown on every game page. Our model rates each team from this season's SHL results, adds the league's home-ice edge and blends with the betting market where bookmakers price the game.
Our SHL record
Before launch the model was tested on the 2023–24 SHL season, predicting each game only from the games before it, against always backing the home team and backing the team with the better points record. The test and the live record are on the accuracy page.
SHL predictions: questions
- How many points is a win worth in the SHL?
- Three for a win in regulation, two for a win after overtime or a shootout, one for a loss after overtime or a shootout, none for a regulation loss.
- Are SHL predictions free?
- Yes. The win probability and projected score of every SHL game are free to read, with no sign-up.
- When are SHL predictions published?
- Up to three days before the face-off, and they update until the game starts.
- How accurate are the SHL predictions?
- The model was tested on the whole 2023–24 season, predicting each game only from the games before it: it called 60% of SHL winners in 411 games, against 57% for always backing the home team. Every new pick is settled in public on the accuracy page.
- How many goals are scored in SHL games?
- Finished SHL games this season have averaged 5 goals in total, and the home team has won 66% of them. Each game's own projected total is on its prediction page.
- When are SHL predictions published?
- Up to 3 days before the face-off. Each prediction is updated as the betting market moves, until the game starts.
- What do the puck line and the total mean?
- The puck line is hockey's handicap: −1.5 means the favourite has to win by two goals or more, +1.5 that the underdog covers if it wins or loses by one. A win after overtime or a shootout is always by one goal. The total is the number of goals both teams score together, overtime included and a shootout counted as one goal; the over/under pick says whether the game should finish above or below the line.
- Are the SHL predictions free?
- Yes. The win probability, projected score, puck line and total goals of every SHL game are free to read, with no sign-up.
- How are the predictions made?
- Each team gets attack and defence ratings from this season's games in regulation, weighted toward recent form and adjusted for the opponents faced, plus a home-ice edge measured for each league. A Poisson model turns them into the chance of every score, ties go to overtime and the shootout, and where bookmakers price a game the model is blended with their consensus.