SHL

Brynäs vs Rogle prediction

Brynäs5–5–0 · Home Rogle5–5–0 · Away06:00 PMOct 24

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%BRY57%BRY

Brynäs to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.76 · projected 3–2

Brynas are favoured at 57% to beat Rögle, with a projected 3–2 scoreline that reflects how tight this matchup is.

After 60 minutes

BRYBrynäs in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

ROGRogle in 60'

32%

Game flow

BRY 2.5 · ROG 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.4

P2 · 0.6–1.1

P3 · 1.2–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Brynäs57%1.76
Regulation result (60 minutes)Brynäs44%2.27
Puck lineRogle +1.570%1.43
Total goalsUnder 5.563%1.59
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Brynäs

57%fair 1.76

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Brynäs

44%fair 2.27

Puck line

Rogle +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Under 5.5

63%fair 1.59

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. HorkyROG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6325%3.95
K. BellowsBRY · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5323%4.28
D. EverbergROG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4421%4.69
J. SilfverbergBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.64
J. Anderson-DolanBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.65
B. TrivignoBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3217%5.95
O. LindblomBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3117%5.97
J. KellmanROG · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.32
A. SundsvikROG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2213%7.93
F. JohanssonROG · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2113%8.00

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Brynäs vs Rogle?

Brynas are favoured at 57% to beat Rögle, with a projected 3–2 scoreline that reflects how tight this matchup is.

Brynas and Rögle arrive in almost identical form, which is part of why this game is so hard to call. Brynas have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game; Rögle have won 3 of their last 5 with the same 2.6 scoring rate but a tighter 2.0 against. The table offers little separation either, with Brynas 5th and Rögle 6th.

The underlying ratings complicate the home edge. Adjusted for opponents faced, Brynas rate +0.06 and Rögle +0.11 goals per game against an average team, a 0.05-goal edge to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league, and that is what tips the balance back toward Brynas rather than any clear quality gap.

In regulation the model gives Brynas 44% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there. The moneyline market, once the bookmaker margin is removed across 7 bookmakers, prices Brynas at 57%, matching the model's view. With the ratings this close, the lean toward the home side is a narrow one.

Rögle's case rests on their slightly better adjusted rating and their stronger defensive record over the last five games, which keeps them within reach throughout. Brynas counter with home ice and a market that backs them at 57% on the moneyline. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits a game that should stay tight into the third period.

The projected 3–2 score gives a total of 5 goals, and the under 5.5 goals lands 63% on our numbers, making it the more comfortable side of the total line. On the puck line, Brynas −1.5 comes in 30% of the time, so a one-goal margin is the likely outcome and backing the home side to cover is a much weaker proposition than the moneyline price suggests.

Brynas to win, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected score of 3–2.