Liiga

Vaasan Sport vs Ässät prediction

Vaasan Sport6–6–2 · Home Ässät9–5–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 31

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%ÄSS51%ÄSS

Ässät to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.95 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Ässät (51%) on the road against Vaasan Sport, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

VAAVaasan Sport in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

ÄSSÄssät in 60'

40%

Game flow

VAA 2.3 · ÄSS 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.8

P2 · 0.9–0.8

P3 · 0.7–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ässät51%1.95
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ässät40%2.50
Puck lineVaasan Sport +1.577%1.31
Total goalsOver 4.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ässät

51%fair 1.95

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ässät

40%fair 2.50

Puck line

Vaasan Sport +1.5

77%fair 1.31

Total goals

Over 4.5

56%fair 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.23

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

S. PinardÄSS · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6424%4.14
B. HarrisonVAA · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3420%4.90
L. HeikkinenVAA · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5120%5.08
S. AkerstromVAA · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3318%5.71
C. HillisÄSS · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4317%5.98
S. KostilainenÄSS · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4416%6.10
A. DoucetÄSS · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4116%6.10
J. OlofssonÄSS · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3015%6.87
G. DiacoVAA · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3013%7.59
O. PalveVAA · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1613%7.84

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Vaasan Sport vs Ässät?

The numbers side with Ässät (51%) on the road against Vaasan Sport, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Vaasan Sport have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Ässät have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Vaasan Sport sit 13th, while Ässät sit 4th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vaasan Sport rate −0.39 and Ässät −0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.37 goals to Ässät. Home ice is worth about 0.31 goals a game in this league.

About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ässät win it in regulation only 40% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Vaasan Sport 0, Ässät 1); the latest finished Ässät 5–1 Vaasan Sport on 2026-09-15.

Our own lines for this game: Ässät −1.5 on the puck line (23%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 56% (4.8 projected).

Ässät to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.