Liiga

Kärpät vs HPK prediction

Kärpät9–3–4 · Home HPK8–8–0 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%KÄR65%KÄR

Kärpät to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.55 · projected 3–2

Kärpät are the pick at home against HPK: a 65% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KÄRKärpät in 60'

54%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

HPKHPK in 60'

26%

Game flow

KÄR 2.9 · HPK 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.4

P2 · 1.0–0.7

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kärpät65%1.55
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kärpät54%1.85
Puck lineHPK +1.564%1.57
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kärpät

65%fair 1.55

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kärpät

54%fair 1.85

Puck line

HPK +1.5

64%fair 1.57

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.64

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. PakkilaKÄR · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6325%3.99
J. TichacekKÄR · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5421%4.84
E. ErholtzKÄR · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4420%5.06
E. KoivistoinenKÄR · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4318%5.66
S. PaivarintaHPK · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6418%5.68
R. HirvonenKÄR · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4517%5.82
R. VesterinenHPK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4317%5.91
O. KorhonenHPK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3515%6.76
E. de JongHPK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3214%7.16
V. JokirinneHPK · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3413%7.79

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kärpät vs HPK?

Kärpät are the pick at home against HPK: a 65% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Kärpät have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. HPK have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Kärpät sit 8th, while HPK sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kärpät rate +0.15 and HPK −0.30 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.45 goals to Kärpät. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Kärpät win it in regulation only 54% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 65%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Kärpät 0, HPK 1); the latest finished HPK 2–1 Kärpät on 2026-10-03.

Our own lines for this game: Kärpät −1.5 on the puck line (36%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 61% (5.1 projected).

Kärpät to win, overtime and shootout included (65%). Projected score: 3–2.