P2 · 4'

Jukurit vs Ilves prediction

Jukurit11–5–0 · Home Ilves10–5–0 · Away0–1P2 · 4'

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Live · updates automatically

Our pick

54%ILV54%ILV

Ilves to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 2–3

Ilves are the pick on the road at 54%, overtime and shootout included, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

JUKJukurit in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

ILVIlves in 60'

41%

Game flow

JUK 2.5 · ILV 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.6

P2 · 1.0–0.6

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ilves54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ilves41%2.43
Puck lineJukurit +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 4.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ilves

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ilves

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Jukurit +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 4.5

59%fair 1.69

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.23

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. HenmanILV · 8 G in 15 GP · 15 GP8525%4.00
J. OlofssonJUK · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6423%4.37
J. HayhurstJUK · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5020%4.98
C. FordJUK · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5319%5.18
A. LintuniemiJUK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3117%6.02
L. BoudonJUK · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4217%6.02
A. StrandILV · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5116%6.12
B. KorhonenILV · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5116%6.28
L. JasekILV · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4014%7.05
I. HeikkinenILV · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3114%7.15

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Jukurit vs Ilves?

Ilves are the pick on the road at 54%, overtime and shootout included, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

The model leans Ilves even though Jukurit sit 1st and Ilves 3rd, and the gap in the table is not what separates them. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Ilves rate +0.20 goals per game against an average team and Jukurit +0.14, an edge of 0.06 goals to Ilves. Home ice is worth about 0.42 goals a game in this league, which is why the visitors' advantage stays narrow. The result is a 54% call for Ilves, with overtime and shootout included, and a projected 3–2 final.

Recent form points the other way. Jukurit have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch, while Ilves have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0. Jukurit's tighter defensive record is the underdog's case, and it fits a low-scoring night at home. Ilves' higher scoring rate keeps them in front on the ratings, but the form line gives Jukurit a real argument.

In regulation the model gives Ilves 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. That structure explains why the overall 54% is higher than the regulation number. The teams have met 1 time recently, the latest finishing Ilves 3–2 Jukurit on 2026-09-29. The market agrees with the model: once the bookmaker margin is removed, it prices Ilves at 59% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

The projected 3–2 final sits above the 4.5 total line, and the over lands 59% against a projected 4.9 goals. On the puck line, Ilves −1.5 comes in 27% of the time on our numbers, so the model sees little value in asking Ilves to win by two or more. The moneyline price of 59% for Ilves is close to the model's 54%, which keeps the lean modest rather than strong.

Ilves to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected 3–2 final.