Liiga

Kärpät vs KalPa prediction

Kärpät9–3–4 · Home KalPa5–7–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%KÄR61%KÄR

Kärpät to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.63 · projected 3–2

Kärpät are the pick at home against KalPa with a 61% win probability including overtime, on a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KÄRKärpät in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KALKalPa in 60'

29%

Game flow

KÄR 2.8 · KAL 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.6

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 1.0–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kärpät61%1.63
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kärpät51%1.97
Puck lineKalPa +1.567%1.50
Total goalsUnder 5.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kärpät

61%fair 1.63

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kärpät

51%fair 1.97

Puck line

KalPa +1.5

67%fair 1.50

Total goals

Under 5.5

62%fair 1.61

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. PakkilaKÄR · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6325%4.06
J. TichacekKÄR · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5420%4.93
E. ErholtzKÄR · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4419%5.16
E. KoivistoinenKÄR · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4317%5.77
R. HirvonenKÄR · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4517%5.92
T. HartikainenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.10
A. KlemettiKAL · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4116%6.13
K. KapanenKAL · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4116%6.17
J. SaarelainenKAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3015%6.85
J. KononenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3014%7.05

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kärpät vs KalPa?

Kärpät are the pick at home against KalPa with a 61% win probability including overtime, on a projected 3–2 score.

Kärpät carry a clear edge into this home game, and the model's 61% win probability including overtime makes them the pick. The rating gap supports it: adjusted for opponents, Kärpät sit at +0.15 goals per game against an average team while KalPa are at −0.11, a 0.26-goal difference before home ice adds roughly 0.39 more. Inside 60 minutes Kärpät win 51% of the time, with a 20% chance the game is tied after three periods and heads to overtime and possibly a shootout.

Recent form points the same way. Kärpät have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.6 per game over that stretch, while KalPa have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.2. The table agrees: Kärpät are 8th and KalPa 14th. KalPa's case rests on the single meeting between the teams, which Kärpät won 5–2 on 2026-10-23, so the head-to-head record offers the visitors little comfort.

The market and the model are aligned on the winner, with Kärpät priced as the favourite at home. The projected 3–2 scoreline reflects a game that should stay close, which is why the regulation split matters: a 20% chance of a tie after three periods keeps overtime in play and is already folded into the 61% figure. KalPa's low scoring rate of late, 1.6 goals a game, is the main obstacle to an upset.

For Kärpät, the combination of home ice, the better adjusted rating and the stronger five-game form makes them the side to back. KalPa would need to reverse a scoring trend that has produced 1.6 goals a game while conceding 3.2, and the model gives them little room to do it.

The projected 3–2 score sits under the 5.5 total, and the model puts the under at 62% with 5.2 projected goals. On the puck line, Kärpät −1.5 carries a 33% probability, so a one-goal margin is the more likely outcome than a cover. The numbers point to a close, low-scoring home win rather than a comfortable one.

Kärpät to win, overtime and shootout included, at 61%, with a projected 3–2 score.