Liiga

KooKoo vs Jokerit prediction

KooKoo2–12–2 · Home Jokerit3–9–3 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%JOK52%JOK

Jokerit to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.91 · projected 2–3

Jokerit are the pick on the road against KooKoo, with a 52% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KOOKooKoo in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

23%

JOKJokerit in 60'

40%

Game flow

KOO 2.9 · JOK 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–1.0

P2 · 1.1–0.6

P3 · 1.1–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Jokerit52%1.91
Regulation result (60 minutes)Jokerit40%2.47
Puck lineKooKoo +1.572%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.550%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Jokerit

52%fair 1.91

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Jokerit

40%fair 2.47

Puck line

KooKoo +1.5

72%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

50%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. MiettinenKOO · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6628%3.60
M. FortierJOK · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5226%3.89
A. PelliKOO · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3323%4.33
A. ForslundJOK · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4423%4.36
M. HannikainenJOK · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3122%4.52
O. JaakolaKOO · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4322%4.54
V. GalloKOO · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3320%5.10
R. RoobaKOO · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3218%5.44
A. MustonenJOK · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2117%5.93
P. VirtaJOK · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2116%6.26

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win KooKoo vs Jokerit?

Jokerit are the pick on the road against KooKoo, with a 52% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Neither side arrives in good shape, so this is a matchup of two teams searching for a result rather than one in form. KooKoo have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch, while Jokerit have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.2. Both records are poor, but KooKoo's defensive numbers are the more generous of the two, which matters for a home side expected to carry the play.

The table offers little separation: KooKoo sit 17th and Jokerit 16th, one place apart near the bottom. The ratings adjust for the opponents each team has faced, and there Jokerit come out ahead, at −0.45 goals per game against an average team compared with KooKoo's −0.67. That 0.22-goal edge is modest, and home ice is worth about 0.42 goals a game in this league, so the venue advantage is real and keeps KooKoo in the conversation.

The head-to-head picture is reflected in the overtime share: about 23% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes. That is why Jokerit win in regulation only 40% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 52%. The market reads the game the same way, pricing Jokerit at 55% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 8 bookmakers, which sits close to our own figure.

With the two teams separated by a single place and a small ratings gap, the home-ice allowance is what keeps this from being a clear call either way. Jokerit's edge comes from the adjusted ratings and the market's agreement, not from recent form, since both clubs have won just once in five. The projected 3–2 score fits a tight game that could easily need more than 60 minutes.

The projected 3–2 score puts the game right at the edge of the 5.5-goal line, and the under lands 50% against a projected 5.7 goals, so the total is close to a toss-up. On the puck line, Jokerit −1.5 comes in 28% of the time on our numbers, which reflects how narrow the projected margin is. The moneyline is the cleaner expression of the lean, with Jokerit at 52% including overtime and the market at 55%.

Jokerit to win, overtime and shootout included (52%), with a projected 3–2 score.