P3 · 5'

Punks Vilnius vs Riga Prizma prediction

Punks Vilnius2–6–1 · Home Riga Prizma2–8–0 · Away3–8P3 · 5'

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Live · updates automatically

Our pick

55%RIG55%RIG

Riga Prizma to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.81 · projected 3–4

Riga Prizma are the pick to win, including overtime and a shootout, at 55% with a projected 4–3 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

PUNPunks Vilnius in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

RIGRiga Prizma in 60'

47%

Game flow

PUN 3.5 · RIG 3.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.7–1.7

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Riga Prizma55%1.81
Regulation result (60 minutes)Riga Prizma47%2.13
Puck linePunks Vilnius +1.567%1.48
Total goalsUnder 7.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes95%1.05

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Riga Prizma

55%fair 1.81

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Riga Prizma

47%fair 2.13

Puck line

Punks Vilnius +1.5

67%fair 1.48

Total goals

Under 7.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

95%fair 1.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. RiekstinsRIG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6439%2.60
R. JekimovsRIG · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5332%3.08
O. KarvinenPUN · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4231%3.23
E. EzitisRIG · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4229%3.49
E. LocmelisRIG · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2427%3.65
A. RedkoPUN · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3227%3.74
P. VerenisPUN · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2224%4.16
H. MarcinkeviciusPUN · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2123%4.37
I. CetvertakPUN · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2123%4.43
R. VitolsRIG · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2321%4.67

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Punks Vilnius vs Riga Prizma?

Riga Prizma are the pick to win, including overtime and a shootout, at 55% with a projected 4–3 scoreline.

The model makes Riga Prizma a narrow favourite at 55% even though they are the away side in this Latvian Hockey League meeting with Punks Vilnius. The rating gap is what drives it: adjusted for opponents, Riga Prizma sit at −0.52 goals per game against an average team while Punks Vilnius are at −1.09, a 0.57-goal edge that home ice only partly offsets at roughly 0.21 goals a game. In regulation the split is 47% for Riga Prizma and 17% for a tie after three periods, with that tie heading to overtime and possibly a shootout.

Neither team arrives in good shape, and the recent form is ugly on both sides. Punks Vilnius have won 1 of their last 5 while scoring 1.0 and allowing 7.4 goals a game, and Riga Prizma have won 0 of their last 5 while scoring 2.0 and allowing 6.2. The table reflects that: Punks Vilnius are 7th and Riga Prizma 8th, so this is a matchup between two of the league's lower-placed sides rather than a contest between in-form teams.

The head-to-head record is short and favours the home team, with the single recent meeting going to Punks Vilnius and the latest finishing Riga Prizma 2–4 Punks Vilnius on 2026-09-19. That result is the underdog's case, and it sits alongside home ice as the main reason the model stops well short of a clear favourite. The market still leans to Riga Prizma, but at 55% the edge is thin enough that the model itself describes this as close to a coin flip and advises treating the lean with care.

The projected 4–3 score has Riga Prizma winning by one, which sits under the −1.5 puck line, and that line carries just 33%. The 7.5 total goals line is the other side of the same projection: 7.5 goals projected against a 7.5 line leaves the under at 55%, so the numbers point to a one-goal game that lands right around the total rather than comfortably above it.

Riga Prizma to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected score of 4–3.