Latvian Hockey League

Mogo vs Riga Prizma prediction

Mogo8–0–1 · Home Riga Prizma2–8–0 · Away07:20 PMOct 28

77%win chance incl. overtime23%

Our pick

77%MOG77%MOG

Mogo to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.29 · projected 4–3

Our model makes Mogo 77% favourites at home against Riga Prizma, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 4–3 final.

After 60 minutes

MOGMogo in 60'

70%

Tied → OTTied → OT

13%

RIGRiga Prizma in 60'

17%

Game flow

MOG 4.5 · RIG 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 2.0–0.9

P3 · 1.5–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Mogo77%1.29
Regulation result (60 minutes)Mogo70%1.43
Puck lineMogo −1.556%1.80
Total goalsOver 6.558%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Mogo

77%fair 1.29

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Mogo

70%fair 1.43

Puck line

Mogo −1.5

56%fair 1.80

Total goals

Over 6.5

58%fair 1.71

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. SkrastinsMOG · 8 G in 8 GP · 8 GP8742%2.36
R. PolcsMOG · 8 G in 9 GP · 9 GP8541%2.45
R. GrinbergsMOG · 7 G in 9 GP · 9 GP7536%2.75
K. RiekstinsRIG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6427%3.68
K. DaugavinsMOG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4526%3.79
K. ZieminsMOG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4625%4.01
R. JekimovsRIG · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5323%4.42
E. EzitisRIG · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4220%5.05
E. LocmelisRIG · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2419%5.30
R. VitolsRIG · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2315%6.87

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Mogo vs Riga Prizma?

Our model makes Mogo 77% favourites at home against Riga Prizma, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 4–3 final.

Mogo have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 5.4 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch. Riga Prizma have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 6.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Mogo sit 2nd, while Riga Prizma sit 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Mogo rate +1.18 and Riga Prizma −0.52 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.70 goals to Mogo. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

About 13% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Mogo win it in regulation only 70% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 77%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Mogo 1, Riga Prizma 0); the latest finished Riga Prizma 1–6 Mogo on 2026-10-10.

Our own lines for this game: Mogo −1.5 on the puck line (56%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 58% (7.1 projected).

Mogo to win, overtime and shootout included (77%). Projected score: 4–3.