KHL

Dinamo Minsk vs Barys Astana prediction

Dinamo Minsk6–6–6 · Home Barys Astana10–7–1 · Away07:10 PMOct 28

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%BAR56%BAR

Barys Astana to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.80 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Barys Astana 56% favourites on the road against Dinamo Minsk, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

DINDinamo Minsk in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

BARBarys Astana in 60'

46%

Game flow

DIN 2.7 · BAR 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.8

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Barys Astana56%1.80
Regulation result (60 minutes)Barys Astana46%2.19
Puck lineDinamo Minsk +1.570%1.43
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Barys Astana

56%fair 1.80

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Barys Astana

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

Dinamo Minsk +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. BaileyBAR · 12 G in 18 GP · 18 GP12534%2.95
T. ThompsonBAR · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8127%3.65
D. SotishviliDIN · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6225%4.06
D. LipskyDIN · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6324%4.12
S. GaliyevDIN · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6023%4.28
S. SimonovBAR · 7 G in 18 GP · 18 GP7123%4.37
N. Aube-KubelDIN · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5119%5.17
G. PilonBAR · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6219%5.27
M. MorelliBAR · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4417%5.85
S. KuznetsovDIN · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4116%6.33

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (2)

G. Pilon · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
M. Morelli · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who will win Dinamo Minsk vs Barys Astana?

Our model makes Barys Astana 56% favourites on the road against Dinamo Minsk, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Dinamo Minsk have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Barys Astana have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Dinamo Minsk sit 8th in the Western Conference, while Barys Astana sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dinamo Minsk rate −0.19 and Barys Astana +0.29 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.48 goals to Barys Astana. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Barys Astana win it in regulation only 46% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 56%.

Our own lines for this game: Barys Astana −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

Barys Astana to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.