NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

St. Louis Blues5–5–1 · Home Montreal Canadiens5–3–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 27

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%LOU55%LOU

St. Louis Blues to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with St. Louis Blues (55%) at home against Montreal Canadiens, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LOUSt. Louis Blues in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

MONMontreal Canadiens in 60'

35%

Game flow

LOU 3.2 · MON 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 0.9–1.3

P3 · 1.4–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)St. Louis Blues55%1.82
Regulation result (60 minutes)St. Louis Blues44%2.25
Puck lineMontreal Canadiens +1.571%1.42
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

St. Louis Blues

55%fair 1.82

Regulation result (60 minutes)

St. Louis Blues

44%fair 2.25

Puck line

Montreal Canadiens +1.5

71%fair 1.42

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 24

JH30HoferProjected

DH81HollowayLW RT18ThomasC JS21SnuggerudRW

1st line

13:16 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Dylan Holloway LW	16:37	3	7	10
18	Robert Thomas C	17:16	1	4	5
21	Jimmy Snuggerud RW	15:23	6	2	8

23 points this season

CM77McMichaelLW MM83McTavishC JB29BerggrenRW

2nd line

9:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Connor McMichael LW	14:41	2	5	7
83	Mason McTavish C	15:22	6	4	10
29	Jonatan Berggren RW	15:55	2	3	5

22 points this season

PB89BuchnevichLW JN63NeighboursC DD15DvorskyRW

3rd line

7:27 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Pavel Buchnevich LW	13:06	2	4	6
63	Jake Neighbours C	11:38	3	2	5
15	Dalibor Dvorsky RW	10:23	2	1	3

14 points this season

PS22SuterLW AK41KaskimakiC OS28StenbergRW

4th line

6:08 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Pius Suter LW	11:14	3	3	6
41	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C	11:37	0	1	1
28	Otto Stenberg RW	9:35	0	1	1

8 points this season

PB6BrobergD CP55ParaykoD

1st pair

10:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Philip Broberg D	22:28	2	4	6
55	Colton Parayko D	19:03	0	4	4

10 points this season

CF17FowlerD BC25CarloD

2nd pair

13:01 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Cam Fowler D	17:32	0	4	4
25	Brandon Carlo D	15:29	0	1	1

5 points this season

JB72BarronD AJ36JiricekD

3rd pair

7:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Justin Barron D	17:34	1	4	5
36	Adam Jiricek D	14:35	1	1	2

7 points this season

RT18ThomasF DH81HollowayF JS21SnuggerudF

JN63NeighboursF PB6BrobergD

Power play unit 1

0:59 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Robert Thomas F	17:16	1	4	5
81	Dylan Holloway F	16:37	3	7	10
21	Jimmy Snuggerud F	15:23	6	2	8
63	Jake Neighbours F	11:38	3	2	5
6	Philip Broberg D	22:28	2	4	6

34 points this season

JB29BerggrenF MM83McTavishF CM77McMichaelF

PB89BuchnevichF CF17FowlerD

Power play unit 2

0:36 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Jonatan Berggren F	15:55	2	3	5
83	Mason McTavish F	15:22	6	4	10
77	Connor McMichael F	14:41	2	5	7
89	Pavel Buchnevich F	13:06	2	4	6
17	Cam Fowler D	17:32	0	4	4

32 points this season

RT18ThomasF CM77McMichaelF

PB6BrobergD CP55ParaykoD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:36 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Robert Thomas F	17:16	1	4	5
77	Connor McMichael F	14:41	2	5	7
6	Philip Broberg D	22:28	2	4	6
55	Colton Parayko D	19:03	0	4	4

22 points this season

PB89BuchnevichF PS22SuterF

CF17FowlerD BC25CarloD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:33 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Pavel Buchnevich F	13:06	2	4	6
22	Pius Suter F	11:14	3	3	6
17	Cam Fowler D	17:32	0	4	4
25	Brandon Carlo D	15:29	0	1	1

17 points this season

Goalies: Joel Hofer #30 (Projected) · Jordan Binnington #50 (Backup)

Montreal Canadiens

Last game: Oct 23

1st line

8:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Juraj Slafkovský LW	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen C	13:26	0	0	0
13	Cole Caufield RW	14:36	6	2	8

15 points this season

85TexierLW

24DanaultC

76BolducRW

2nd line

7:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
85	Alexandre Texier LW	11:50	1	2	3
24	Phillip Danault C	15:49	0	3	3
76	Zachary Bolduc RW	11:52	4	2	6

12 points this season

22KreiderLW

15NewhookC

17AndersonRW

3rd line

5:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Chris Kreider LW	10:05	1	3	4
15	Alex Newhook C	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson RW	10:32	4	2	6

14 points this season

77DachLW

71EvansC

62BeckRW

4th line

5:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Kirby Dach LW	9:13	0	2	2
71	Jake Evans C	13:24	2	1	3
62	Owen Beck RW	8:48	0	1	1

6 points this season

45CarrierD

21GuhleD

1st pair

9:58 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4

9 points this season

48HutsonD

8MathesonD

2nd pair

9:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

11 points this season

53DobsonD

72XhekajD

3rd pair

5:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2
72	Arber Xhekaj D	10:00	0	0	0

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:38 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Cole Caufield F	14:36	6	2	8
20	Juraj Slafkovský F	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen F	13:26	0	0	0
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

26 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:07 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
76	Zachary Bolduc F	11:52	4	2	6
85	Alexandre Texier F	11:50	1	2	3
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
22	Chris Kreider F	10:05	1	3	4
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

19 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

3:12 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Phillip Danault F	15:49	0	3	3
71	Jake Evans F	13:24	2	1	3
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

13 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

1:26 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson F	10:32	4	2	6
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

16 points this season

Goalies: Jacob Fowler #32 (Projected) · Jakub Dobes #75 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (20)

Jordan Binnington · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Juraj Slafkovský · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Oliver Kapanen · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alexandre Texier · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Phillip Danault · Hockeybroad, CC BY-SA 3.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Chris Kreider · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Newhook · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kirby Dach · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Owen Beck · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Alexandre Carrier · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kaiden Guhle · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Lane Hutson · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mike Matheson · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Dobson · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Arber Xhekaj · Gatarys, CC0
Jakub Dobes · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Joel Hofer LOU

.917 save percentage

2.40 GAA · 4–3–1 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Jacob Fowler MON

.910 save percentage

1.94 GAA · 4–1–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Jimmy SnuggerudLOU · RW · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6431%3.24
Mason McTavishLOU · C · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6330%3.33
Cole CaufieldMON · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6630%3.38
Nick SuzukiMON · C · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5526%3.81
Dylan HollowayLOU · LW · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3623%4.30
Josh AndersonMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4322%4.55
Zachary BolducMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.76
Jake EvansMON · C · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2320%5.11
Jake NeighboursLOU · LW · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3219%5.29
Pius SuterLOU · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3118%5.48

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nick Suzuki · Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win St. Louis Blues vs Montreal Canadiens?

The numbers side with St. Louis Blues (55%) at home against Montreal Canadiens, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

St. Louis Blues have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch. Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

St. Louis Blues sit 10th in the Western Conference, while Montreal Canadiens sit 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, St. Louis Blues rate +0.03 and Montreal Canadiens −0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.09 goals to St. Louis Blues. Home ice is worth about 0.21 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why St. Louis Blues win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

Our own lines for this game: St. Louis Blues −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

St. Louis Blues to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.