NHL

Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

Winnipeg Jets4–3–3 · Home Montreal Canadiens5–3–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 25

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%WIN55%WIN

Winnipeg Jets to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.80 · projected 3–2

Winnipeg Jets are the pick at home against Montreal Canadiens with a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

WINWinnipeg Jets in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

MONMontreal Canadiens in 60'

35%

Game flow

WIN 3.1 · MON 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.0

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Winnipeg Jets55%1.80
Regulation result (60 minutes)Winnipeg Jets45%2.23
Puck lineMontreal Canadiens +1.571%1.42
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Winnipeg Jets

55%fair 1.80

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Winnipeg Jets

45%fair 2.23

Puck line

Montreal Canadiens +1.5

71%fair 1.42

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Winnipeg Jets

Last game: Oct 22

74SkinnerProjected

KC81ConnorLW MS55ScheifeleC CP91PerfettiRW

1st line

10:34 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Kyle Connor LW	23:02	9	3	12
55	Mark Scheifele C	23:40	2	5	7
91	Cole Perfetti RW	19:00	6	2	8

27 points this season

BY29YagerLW AL17LowryC IR27RosenRW

2nd line

8:40 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Brayden Yager LW	14:38	0	0	0
17	Adam Lowry C	16:37	1	3	4
27	Isak Rosen RW	15:18	0	1	1

5 points this season

AI9IafalloLW GV13VilardiC VB61BjörckRW

3rd line

7:13 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Alex Iafallo LW	12:39	3	2	5
13	Gabriel Vilardi C	19:41	1	3	4
61	Viggo Björck RW	12:43	0	0	0

9 points this season

BL93LambertLW MB36BarronC NN62NiederreiterRW

4th line

4:58 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
93	Brad Lambert LW	7:10	1	1
36	Morgan Barron C	14:23	2	2
62	Nino Niederreiter RW	9:52	0	0

3 points this season

NP4PionkD DS54SambergD

1st pair

14:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Neal Pionk D	29:42	1	7	8
54	Dylan Samberg D	22:19	0	3	3

11 points this season

DD2DemeloD MF38FerraroD

2nd pair

11:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
2	Dylan Demelo D	22:41	1	2	3
38	Mario Ferraro D	19:23	1	0	1

4 points this season

HF24FleuryD TB77BauerD

3rd pair

4:22 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Haydn Fleury D	14:10	0	0	0
77	Tyrel Bauer D	9:00	0	0	0

0 points this season

MS55ScheifeleF KC81ConnorF GV13VilardiF

CP91PerfettiF NP4PionkD

Power play unit 1

5:20 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
55	Mark Scheifele F	23:40	2	5	7
81	Kyle Connor F	23:02	9	3	12
13	Gabriel Vilardi F	19:41	1	3	4
91	Cole Perfetti F	19:00	6	2	8
4	Neal Pionk D	29:42	1	7	8

39 points this season

IR27RosenF BY29YagerF VB61BjörckF

NN62NiederreiterF HF24FleuryD

Power play unit 2

1:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	A	P
27	Isak Rosen F	15:18	1	1
29	Brayden Yager F	14:38	0	0
61	Viggo Björck F	12:43	0	0
62	Nino Niederreiter F	9:52	0	0
24	Haydn Fleury D	14:10	0	0

1 points this season

AL17LowryF BY29YagerF

DD2DemeloD MF38FerraroD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:50 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Adam Lowry F	16:37	1	3	4
29	Brayden Yager F	14:38	0	0	0
2	Dylan Demelo D	22:41	1	2	3
38	Mario Ferraro D	19:23	1	0	1

8 points this season

BY29YagerF MB36BarronF

NP4PionkD DS54SambergD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:50 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Brayden Yager F	14:38	0	0	0
36	Morgan Barron F	14:23	0	2	2
4	Neal Pionk D	29:42	1	7	8
54	Dylan Samberg D	22:19	0	3	3

13 points this season

Goalies: Stuart Skinner #74 (Projected) · Clay Stevenson #33 (Backup)

Montreal Canadiens

Last game: Oct 23

1st line

8:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Juraj Slafkovský LW	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen C	13:26	0	0	0
13	Cole Caufield RW	14:36	6	2	8

15 points this season

85TexierLW

24DanaultC

76BolducRW

2nd line

7:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
85	Alexandre Texier LW	11:50	1	2	3
24	Phillip Danault C	15:49	0	3	3
76	Zachary Bolduc RW	11:52	4	2	6

12 points this season

22KreiderLW

15NewhookC

17AndersonRW

3rd line

5:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Chris Kreider LW	10:05	1	3	4
15	Alex Newhook C	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson RW	10:32	4	2	6

14 points this season

77DachLW

71EvansC

62BeckRW

4th line

5:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Kirby Dach LW	9:13	0	2	2
71	Jake Evans C	13:24	2	1	3
62	Owen Beck RW	8:48	0	1	1

6 points this season

45CarrierD

21GuhleD

1st pair

9:58 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4

9 points this season

48HutsonD

8MathesonD

2nd pair

9:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

11 points this season

53DobsonD

72XhekajD

3rd pair

5:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2
72	Arber Xhekaj D	10:00	0	0	0

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:38 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Cole Caufield F	14:36	6	2	8
20	Juraj Slafkovský F	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen F	13:26	0	0	0
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

26 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:07 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
76	Zachary Bolduc F	11:52	4	2	6
85	Alexandre Texier F	11:50	1	2	3
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
22	Chris Kreider F	10:05	1	3	4
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

19 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

3:12 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Phillip Danault F	15:49	0	3	3
71	Jake Evans F	13:24	2	1	3
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

13 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

1:26 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson F	10:32	4	2	6
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

16 points this season

Goalies: Jacob Fowler #32 (Projected) · Jakub Dobes #75 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (21)

Stuart Skinner · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Clay Stevenson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Juraj Slafkovský · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Oliver Kapanen · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alexandre Texier · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Phillip Danault · Hockeybroad, CC BY-SA 3.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Chris Kreider · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Newhook · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kirby Dach · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Owen Beck · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Alexandre Carrier · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kaiden Guhle · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Lane Hutson · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mike Matheson · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Dobson · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Arber Xhekaj · Gatarys, CC0
Jakub Dobes · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Stuart Skinner WIN

.912 save percentage

2.67 GAA · 3–1–3 · 7 starts

Jacob Fowler MON

.910 save percentage

1.94 GAA · 4–1–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Stuart Skinner · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Kyle ConnorWIN · LW · 9 G in 10 GP · 10 GP9443%2.34
Cole PerfettiWIN · C · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6333%3.03
Cole CaufieldMON · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6628%3.55
Nick SuzukiMON · C · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5525%4.01
Alex IafalloWIN · LW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3323%4.28
Josh AndersonMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.81
Zachary BolducMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4320%5.03
Mark ScheifeleWIN · C · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2420%5.07
Jake EvansMON · C · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2319%5.40
Cole KoepkeWIN · LW · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1115%6.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nick Suzuki · Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens?

Winnipeg Jets are the pick at home against Montreal Canadiens with a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Winnipeg Jets have had a rough run of results, with only one victory in their last five games while scoring 2.6 and conceding 2.8 goals per game over that stretch. Montreal Canadiens, by contrast, have won three of their last five, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals per game. The form line clearly favours the visitors, but form is only one part of the picture here.

The table places Winnipeg Jets 10th in the Western Conference and Montreal Canadiens 12th in the Eastern Conference, so neither side arrives with a particularly strong standing in its own conference. Once the opponents each team has faced are taken into account, Winnipeg Jets rate +0.01 and Montreal Canadiens −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.09 goals to Winnipeg Jets. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league, which adds to the case for the home side.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Winnipeg Jets win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%. The market's view of the winner is therefore a narrow one, with our model treating this as close to a coin flip and advising care with the lean.

Our own lines for this game are Winnipeg Jets −1.5 on the puck line at 29% and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected). The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal margin, which sits well below the −1.5 puck line and explains why the cover probability is only 29%. On the total, the projected six goals point slightly above 5.5, matching the 52% over probability.

Take Winnipeg Jets to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected 3–2 score.