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Schwenninger Wild Wings vs Eisbären Berlin prediction

Schwenninger Wild Wings5–6–1 · Home Eisbären Berlin9–2–0 · Away02:00 PMOct 25

38%win chance incl. overtime62%

Our pick

62%EIS62%EIS

Eisbären Berlin to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.62 · projected 2–3

Eisbären Berlin are 62% favourites to win on the road against Schwenninger Wild Wings, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SCHSchwenninger Wild Wings in 60'

29%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

EISEisbären Berlin in 60'

52%

Game flow

SCH 2.4 · EIS 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 0.5–1.1

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Eisbären Berlin62%1.62
Regulation result (60 minutes)Eisbären Berlin52%1.93
Puck lineSchwenninger Wild Wings +1.565%1.54
Total goalsUnder 5.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Eisbären Berlin

62%fair 1.62

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Eisbären Berlin

52%fair 1.93

Puck line

Schwenninger Wild Wings +1.5

65%fair 1.54

Total goals

Under 5.5

53%fair 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. RonningEIS · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8233%3.03
L. KirkEIS · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7731%3.23
A. EderEIS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5326%3.92
M. HofflinSCH · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6525%3.97
M. WiedererEIS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5324%4.10
M. VikingstadEIS · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4424%4.23
P. FeistSCH · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5723%4.41
K. PlatzerSCH · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4521%4.77
H. HaneltSCH · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2615%6.64
A. DziamborSCH · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2214%6.91

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Schwenninger Wild Wings vs Eisbären Berlin?

Eisbären Berlin are 62% favourites to win on the road against Schwenninger Wild Wings, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

The table sets the frame: Eisbären Berlin are 1st, Schwenninger Wild Wings 13th. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Eisbären Berlin rate +0.65 goals per game against an average team and Schwenninger Wild Wings −0.36, an edge of 1.01 goals to Eisbären Berlin. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league, which narrows that gap but does not close it.

Recent form points the same way. Eisbären Berlin have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 3.4 and allowing just 1.0 goals a game over that stretch, a defensive record that makes them hard to beat. Schwenninger Wild Wings have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.6, so they arrive in decent shape but concede far more than the visitors.

The model still expects a close game rather than a rout. About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Eisbären Berlin win it in regulation only 52% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout account for the rest of the 62%. The projected 3–2 final reflects that: Schwenninger Wild Wings get their goals, but Eisbären Berlin come out ahead.

The market side of the model is consistent with the ratings, putting Eisbären Berlin at 62% to win including overtime and the shootout. Our predictions therefore lean toward the visitors, while acknowledging that home ice and Schwenninger Wild Wings' three wins in five give the underdog a real case.

The projected 3–2 final sits below our 5.5 total line, and with the under at 53% against a 5.7 projected goals figure, the numbers favour the lower-scoring outcome. On the puck line, Eisbären Berlin −1.5 carries only 35%, so a one-goal margin is the more likely shape of the game than a cover. The 62% win probability includes overtime and the shootout, which fits a tight contest rather than a comfortable away win.

Eisbären Berlin to win, overtime and shootout included, at 62%, with a projected 3–2 final.