Columbus Blue Jackets vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction
Our pick
Vegas Golden Knights to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 2–3
Vegas Golden Knights are the pick at 54% to beat Columbus Blue Jackets, with a projected 3–2 final score.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
COL 2.9 · VEG 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Vegas Golden Knights54%1.85
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Vegas Golden Knights43%2.33
- Puck lineColumbus Blue Jackets +1.571%1.41
- Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.86
- Both teams to scoreYes90%1.12
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Lines
Lines from the last game · may change
Columbus Blue Jackets
Last game: Oct 20
Forwards
- 1st line8 min together
- 2nd line9 min together
- 3rd line7 min together
- 4th line8 min together
Defence
- 1st pair3 min together
- 2nd pair6 min together
- 3rd pair5 min together
Vegas Golden Knights
Last game: Oct 22
Forwards
- 1st line14 min together
- 2nd line12 min together
- 3rd line7 min together
- 4th line4 min together
Defence
- 1st pair17 min together
- 2nd pair14 min together
- 3rd pair13 min together
How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.
Matthew Knies: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Adam Fantilli: Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5; Kent Johnson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Cole Sillinger: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Charlie Coyle: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Mathieu Olivier: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dmitri Voronkov: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Sean Monahan: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Valeri Nichushkin: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Ryan Lomberg: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Conor Garland: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Zach Werenski: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Damon Severson: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jake Christiansen: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Erik Gudbranson: Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ivan Barbashev: Johnmaxmena2, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jack Eichel: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Mark Stone: Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brett Howden: The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0; William Karlsson: Frankie Fouganthin, CC BY-SA 4.0; Alexander Holtz: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Tomáš Hertl: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Nic Dowd: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Raphael Lavoie: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Brayden McNabb: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Shea Theodore: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Rasmus Andersson: Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jeremy Lauzon: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Noah Hanifin: Photo by Jamie Kellner., CC BY-SA 3.0; Dylan Coghlan: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Goalie duel
Projected
Goalie duelProjected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop
Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.
Photo credits: Carter Hart: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
Mark StoneVEG · RW · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8834%2.97
Kent JohnsonCOL · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4328%3.63
Brett HowdenVEG · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5526%3.78
Jack EichelVEG · C · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5724%4.18
Cole SillingerCOL · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3222%4.48- Trevor ConnellyVEG · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4220%4.97
Tomáš HertlVEG · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4120%5.03
Adam FantilliCOL · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2218%5.58
Mathieu OlivierCOL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2017%5.90
Matthew KniesCOL · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2017%6.05
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Photo credits (9)
Mark Stone: Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0; Kent Johnson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brett Howden: The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jack Eichel: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Cole Sillinger: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tomáš Hertl: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Adam Fantilli: Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5; Mathieu Olivier: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Knies: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Who will win Columbus Blue Jackets vs Vegas Golden Knights?
Vegas Golden Knights are the pick at 54% to beat Columbus Blue Jackets, with a projected 3–2 final score.
The model gives Vegas Golden Knights a 54% chance on the road, a lean thin enough to treat with caution. Columbus Blue Jackets have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game, while Vegas Golden Knights have taken 3 of their last 5 at 4.2 scored and 3.6 allowed. That recent form gap reinforces the modest edge the numbers assign to the visitors.
The table tells a similar story: Columbus Blue Jackets are 16th in the Eastern Conference, Vegas Golden Knights 2nd in the Western Conference. Adjusted for opponents faced, Columbus Blue Jackets rate −0.37 goals per game against an average team and Vegas Golden Knights +0.16, a 0.53-goal edge to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, which trims but does not erase that gap.
The moneyline price agrees with the model, with the market at 54% for Vegas Golden Knights once the bookmaker margin is removed across 2 bookmakers. A projected 3–2 scoreline keeps this close to a coin flip, and about 22% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Vegas Golden Knights win in regulation only 43% of the time. Overtime and the shootout account for the rest of the 54%.
Columbus Blue Jackets' case rests on home ice and a tight projected margin rather than on form or ratings, both of which favour the visitors. The 0.53-goal ratings edge against a 0.25-goal home-ice allowance leaves Vegas Golden Knights ahead on the numbers, and the market has reached the same conclusion.
The projected 3–2 score leaves Vegas Golden Knights short of the −1.5 puck line, which the model prices at 29%. On the 6.5 total, the 6.3 projected goals point to the under at 54%. Both lines sit on the cautious side of the model's expected score.
Take Vegas Golden Knights to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected 3–2 score.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (8 games per team); current squads only.
Photo credits: Charlie Coyle: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Kent Johnson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Mathieu Olivier: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jack Eichel: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Mark Stone: Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jeremy Lauzon: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
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