SHL

Linkoping vs Orebro prediction

Linkoping3–6–1 · Home Orebro4–4–2 · Away01:15 PM UTCOct 24

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%LIN53%LIN

Linkoping to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 3–2

Linkoping are the pick at home against Orebro, with a 53% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LINLinkoping in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

OREOrebro in 60'

35%

Game flow

LIN 2.4 · ORE 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.5

P2 · 0.9–0.8

P3 · 0.6–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Linkoping53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Linkoping41%2.45
Puck lineOrebro +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Linkoping

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Linkoping

41%fair 2.45

Puck line

Orebro +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. VeronneauORE · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4425%3.92
L. HultstromLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2318%5.57
C. MarodyLIN · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2218%5.60
B. ShinniminLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2117%5.86
M. OscarsonORE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3317%5.96
P. KarlkvistORE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3217%5.96
A. DegerstedtLIN · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2316%6.13
M. KokkonenLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2115%6.51
W. StachowiakORE · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2215%6.72
G. GustafssonORE · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2114%7.18

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Linkoping vs Orebro?

Linkoping are the pick at home against Orebro, with a 53% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Linkoping enter this SHL matchup at home, where they are given a 53% chance to win, overtime and shootout included. The model projects a 3–2 final, a margin thin enough that the game could swing either way. Orebro, despite sitting higher in the table, are the underdog in this spot.

Form over the last five games shows Orebro with three wins to Linkoping's two. Orebro have scored 2.0 goals per game and allowed 2.6, while Linkoping have scored 1.8 and allowed 2.8. Those numbers suggest Orebro have been slightly better at both ends, but the gap is not large.

The table tells a different story: Orebro are 9th and Linkoping 14th, a five-place difference. However, adjusted for opponents faced, Linkoping rate at −0.49 goals per game and Orebro at −0.16, giving Orebro an edge of 0.33 goals. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals in this league, which flips the advantage back to Linkoping.

In regulation, the model gives Linkoping a 41% chance to win inside 60 minutes and a 24% chance the game is tied after three periods. The betting market, after removing the bookmaker margin, prices Linkoping at 54% on the moneyline across seven bookmakers, closely aligning with our 53% figure. That consensus supports the lean toward the home side, but with the game nearly a coin flip, the margin for error is small.

The projected 3–2 score has Linkoping winning by a single goal, which makes the −1.5 puck line a long shot: our numbers give it only a 29% chance of covering. The total is projected at 5 goals, and the under 5.5 goals lands 62% of the time, making it the more reliable play on the totals side.

Linkoping to win, overtime and shootout included, with a 53% probability and a projected 3–2 score.