NHL

New Jersey Devils vs Los Angeles Kings prediction

New Jersey Devils6–4–0 · Home Los Angeles Kings2–4–2 · Away03:30 PMOct 24

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%NEW60%NEW

New Jersey Devils to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.68 · projected 3–2

New Jersey Devils are the pick to beat Los Angeles Kings, overtime and shootout included, at 60%, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

NEWNew Jersey Devils in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

LOSLos Angeles Kings in 60'

31%

Game flow

NEW 3.2 · LOS 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 1.3–0.9

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)New Jersey Devils60%1.68
Regulation result (60 minutes)New Jersey Devils48%2.10
Puck lineLos Angeles Kings +1.565%1.55
Total goalsUnder 6.557%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

New Jersey Devils

60%fair 1.68

Regulation result (60 minutes)

New Jersey Devils

48%fair 2.10

Puck line

Los Angeles Kings +1.5

65%fair 1.55

Total goals

Under 6.5

57%fair 1.77

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

New Jersey Devils

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

11:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier LW	16:40	1	3	4
13	Nico Hischier C	16:31	5	2	7
77	Luke Evangelista RW	17:16	3	2	5

16 points this season

63BrattLW

86HughesC AG81GritsyukRW

2nd line

11:18 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
63	Jesper Bratt LW	15:28	2	6	8
86	Jack Hughes C	18:49	3	8	11
81	Arseny Gritsyuk RW	15:40	5	2	7

26 points this season

70BoqvistLW

12GlassC

16BrownRW

3rd line

8:33 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
70	Jesper Boqvist LW	13:41	3	1	4
12	Cody Glass C	13:45	1	0	1
16	Connor Brown RW	13:00	0	2	2

7 points this season

17RodriguesLW

91MercerC

39ManthaRW

4th line

10:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Evan Rodrigues LW	12:55	2	2	4
91	Dawson Mercer C	13:55	0	4	4
39	Anthony Mantha RW	11:34	2	1	3

11 points this season

43HughesD

22PesceD

1st pair

18:01 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3

7 points this season

71SiegenthalerD

7HamiltonD

2nd pair

18:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Jonas Siegenthaler D	21:15	0	2	2
7	Dougie Hamilton D	21:09	1	4	5

7 points this season

JK8KovacevicD

47ChisholmD

3rd pair

13:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

1:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Jack Hughes F	18:49	3	8	11
77	Luke Evangelista F	17:16	3	2	5
13	Nico Hischier F	16:31	5	2	7
63	Jesper Bratt F	15:28	2	6	8
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4

35 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:52 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier F	16:40	1	3	4
91	Dawson Mercer F	13:55	0	4	4
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

17 points this season

AG81GritsyukF

17RodriguesF

43HughesD JK8KovacevicD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:32 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Arseny Gritsyuk F	15:40	5	2	7
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0

15 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Jake Allen #34 (Projected) · Nico Daws #50 (Backup)

Los Angeles Kings

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

14:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Artemi Panarin LW	21:28	6	3	9
9	Adrian Kempe C	20:09	3	4	7
14	Alex Laferriere RW	22:52	2	5	7

23 points this season

56HaulaLW AL47LeeC

36ZuccarelloRW

2nd line

10:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula LW	16:52	1	3	4
47	Andre Lee C	14:53	0	0	0
36	Mats Zuccarello RW	14:27	0	1	1

5 points this season

12MooreLW

21LaughtonC

40ArmiaRW

3rd line

9:04 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Trevor Moore LW	13:34	1	1	2
21	Scott Laughton C	13:20	1	1	2
40	Joel Armia RW	12:14	1	1	2

6 points this season

JW25WrightLW

79HeleniusC

90PerryRW

4th line

7:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
25	Jared Wright LW	10:09
79	Samuel Helenius C	9:44
90	Corey Perry RW	10:18

0 points this season

64GustafssonD

92ClarkeD

1st pair

9:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
64	Erik Gustafsson D	22:45	1	1	2
92	Brandt Clarke D	19:54	2	5	7

9 points this season

44AndersonD

2DumoulinD

2nd pair

15:13 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Mikey Anderson D	21:06	0	1	1
2	Brian Dumoulin D	18:41	1	0	1

2 points this season

8DoughtyD

6EdmundsonD

3rd pair

8:18 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Drew Doughty D	21:58	0	1	1
6	Joel Edmundson D	17:23	0	0	0

1 points this season

Power play unit 1

0:42 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Alex Laferriere F	22:52	2	5	7
10	Artemi Panarin F	21:28	6	3	9
9	Adrian Kempe F	20:09	3	4	7
36	Mats Zuccarello F	14:27	0	1	1
92	Brandt Clarke D	19:54	2	5	7

31 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

56HaulaF AL47LeeF

44AndersonD

2DumoulinD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:02 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula F	16:52	1	3	4
47	Andre Lee F	14:53	0	0	0
44	Mikey Anderson D	21:06	0	1	1
2	Brian Dumoulin D	18:41	1	0	1

6 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula F	16:52	1	3	4
40	Joel Armia F	12:14	1	1	2
8	Drew Doughty D	21:58	0	1	1
6	Joel Edmundson D	17:23	0	0	0

7 points this season

Goalies: Darcy Kuemper #35 (Projected) · Anton Forsberg #31 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (36)

Timo Meier · Djmelvis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jesper Bratt · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cody Glass · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Connor Brown · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Evan Rodrigues · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dawson Mercer · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Anthony Mantha · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Luke Hughes · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Pesce · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jonas Siegenthaler · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Dougie Hamilton · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Declan Chisholm · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nico Daws · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Artemi Panarin · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Adrian Kempe · Ryan Tanner, CC0
Alex Laferriere · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0
Erik Haula · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mats Zuccarello · Lillehammer 2016 Youth Olympic Games from Norway, CC BY 2.0
Trevor Moore · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Scott Laughton · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joel Armia · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Samuel Helenius · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Corey Perry · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Erik Gustafsson · Albin Olsson, CC BY-SA 3.0
Brandt Clarke · TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mikey Anderson · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brian Dumoulin · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
Drew Doughty · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joel Edmundson · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcy Kuemper · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Anton Forsberg · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jake Allen NEW

.883 save percentage

3.15 GAA · 4–2–0 · 6 starts

Darcy Kuemper LOS

.890 save percentage

3.55 GAA · 2–3–1 · 6 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Darcy Kuemper · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Artemi PanarinLOS · LW · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6634%2.90
Arseny GritsyukNEW · RW · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5531%3.20
Nico HischierNEW · C · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5430%3.36
Adrian KempeLOS · RW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3522%4.56
Jesper BoqvistNEW · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3220%5.01
Jack HughesNEW · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3620%5.11
Luke EvangelistaNEW · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3219%5.23
Brandt ClarkeLOS · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2518%5.68
Alex LaferriereLOS · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2417%6.00
Scott LaughtonLOS · C · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1215%6.89

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (9)

Artemi Panarin · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Adrian Kempe · Ryan Tanner, CC0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brandt Clarke · TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Laferriere · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0
Scott Laughton · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win New Jersey Devils vs Los Angeles Kings?

New Jersey Devils are the pick to beat Los Angeles Kings, overtime and shootout included, at 60%, with a projected 3–2 final.

New Jersey Devils carry the stronger recent record into this home game, having taken four of their last five while averaging 4.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. Los Angeles Kings, by contrast, have won only two of their last five and have produced 2.2 goals a game while giving up 2.8. That gap in scoring output at both ends is the clearest argument for the home side.

The standings reinforce the form line: New Jersey Devils are 7th in the Eastern Conference, Los Angeles Kings 13th in the Western Conference. Once the quality of opposition is accounted for, New Jersey Devils rate +0.02 goals per game against an average team and Los Angeles Kings −0.18, a difference of 0.21 goals in the home side's favour. Add home ice, worth roughly 0.25 goals a game in this league, and the edge grows further.

The model still treats this as closer than a routine home win. About 22% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so New Jersey Devils take it in regulation only 48% of the time, with overtime and the shootout supplying the rest of their 60%. The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is stripped out across 9 bookmakers, New Jersey Devils are priced at 61% on the moneyline, essentially matching the model.

Los Angeles Kings' case rests on keeping the game tight and dragging it past regulation, where the 22% level-after-60 rate gives them a route to a result. Their recent scoring of 2.2 a game suggests they will need to defend well to stay in touch, while New Jersey Devils' 4.4 goals a game over the same stretch points to a home attack that can separate the sides.

The projected 3–2 final sits just under the 6.5-goal line, and our numbers make the under land 57% of the time against a projected 6.1 goals. On the puck line, New Jersey Devils −1.5 comes in 35% of the time, so a one-goal margin is the more likely shape of a home win. The moneyline price of 61% from 9 bookmakers lines up closely with our 60% for New Jersey Devils.

New Jersey Devils to win, overtime and shootout included, at 60%, with a projected score of 3–2.