SHL

Malmo vs Timrå prediction

Malmo4–2–3 · Home Timrå5–5–0 · Away01:15 PM UTCOct 24

63%win chance incl. overtime37%

Our pick

63%MAL63%MAL

Malmo to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.59 · projected 3–2

Malmo are the pick to win at 63%, with a projected score of 3–2 against Timrå.

After 60 minutes

MALMalmo in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

23%

TIMTimrå in 60'

27%

Game flow

MAL 2.8 · TIM 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.4

P2 · 0.9–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Malmo63%1.59
Regulation result (60 minutes)Malmo50%1.99
Puck lineTimrå +1.563%1.59
Total goalsUnder 5.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.24

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Malmo

63%fair 1.59

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Malmo

50%fair 1.99

Puck line

Timrå +1.5

63%fair 1.59

Total goals

Under 5.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.24

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. PerssonMAL · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4326%3.82
O. KaskiMAL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5225%3.97
P. VesterheimMAL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4222%4.52
R. GardinerTIM · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4318%5.43
A. SundbergMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2316%6.17
O. EklindMAL · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2316%6.18
E. GenborgTIM · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3616%6.20
D. McLaughlinTIM · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2713%7.74
M. HardegardTIM · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2112%8.19
L. ForsellTIM · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2112%8.42

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Malmo vs Timrå?

Malmo are the pick to win at 63%, with a projected score of 3–2 against Timrå.

Malmo carry a 63% chance of winning this home game against Timrå, and the most likely scoreline is 3–2. That edge starts with their adjusted rating of +0.23 goals per game against an average team, compared with −0.32 for Timrå, a gap of 0.56 goals. Home ice in this league is worth about 0.39 goals a game, which pushes the balance further toward the hosts.

Form cuts the other way at first glance. Timrå have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 2.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game, a tighter defensive record than Malmo's 2.6 conceded across a stretch in which Malmo won 3 of 5 and averaged 3.4 goals scored. The table also separates them only slightly, with Malmo 7th and Timrå 10th, so the visitors arrive with a case built on recent results and goals against.

The model still resolves the game in regulation 50% of the time for Malmo, and it puts a 23% chance on a tie after three periods, which would send the game to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The market reads the same way: across 7 bookmakers, the moneyline price for Malmo is 61% once the margin is removed. That sits close to the model's number and confirms the home side as the favourite.

What separates the two teams in the projections is the opponent-adjusted goal difference rather than the raw form line. Malmo's scoring rate over their last 5 is the stronger attacking figure, while Timrå's recent edge comes from limiting opponents to 1.6 goals a game. The home-ice allowance and the 0.56-goal rating gap together explain why the model and the market land on the same winner.

The projected score of 3–2 implies a total of 4.9 goals, which sits below the 5.5 line and gives the under 62%. On the puck line, Malmo −1.5 comes in 37% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal margin is the more likely outcome than a cover.

Malmo to win, overtime and shootout included, at 63%, with a projected score of 3–2.