SHL

Farjestad vs Vaxjo prediction

Farjestad9–0–1 · Home Vaxjo4–5–1 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 24

71%win chance incl. overtime29%

Our pick

71%FAR71%FAR

Farjestad to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.41 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Farjestad 71% favourites at home against Vaxjo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

FARFarjestad in 60'

59%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VAXVaxjo in 60'

20%

Game flow

FAR 3.3 · VAX 1.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.6

P3 · 1.2–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Farjestad71%1.41
Regulation result (60 minutes)Farjestad59%1.70
Puck lineVaxjo +1.554%1.85
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Farjestad

71%fair 1.41

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Farjestad

59%fair 1.70

Puck line

Vaxjo +1.5

54%fair 1.85

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. LodinFAR · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7732%3.13
A. MattssonFAR · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3222%4.54
R. ZohornaFAR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4621%4.83
P. AslundFAR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4121%4.84
J. NygardFAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.86
O. NadeauVAX · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6220%5.08
J. PerssonVAX · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5118%5.68
B. CooperVAX · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4215%6.66
K. HenrikssonVAX · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3112%8.49
D. RasmussenVAX · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2311%9.18

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Farjestad vs Vaxjo?

Our model makes Farjestad 71% favourites at home against Vaxjo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Farjestad have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch. Vaxjo have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Farjestad sit 1st, while Vaxjo sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Farjestad rate +0.98 and Vaxjo −0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.13 goals to Farjestad. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Farjestad win it in regulation only 59% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 71%.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Farjestad at 69% on the moneyline across 7 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Farjestad −1.5 on the puck line comes in 46% of the time on our numbers, and the under 5.5 goals lands 56% against a projected 5.4 goals.

Farjestad to win, overtime and shootout included (71%). Projected score: 3–2.