AHL

Charlotte Checkers vs Springfield Thunderbirds prediction

Charlotte Checkers5–2–0 · Home Springfield Thunderbirds2–3–2 · Away06:00 PMOct 24

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%SPR52%SPR

Springfield Thunderbirds to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.93 · projected 2–3

Springfield Thunderbirds are the pick on the road against Charlotte Checkers: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

CHACharlotte Checkers in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SPRSpringfield Thunderbirds in 60'

40%

Game flow

CHA 2.8 · SPR 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Springfield Thunderbirds52%1.93
Regulation result (60 minutes)Springfield Thunderbirds40%2.49
Puck lineCharlotte Checkers +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Springfield Thunderbirds

52%fair 1.93

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Springfield Thunderbirds

40%fair 2.49

Puck line

Charlotte Checkers +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Charlotte Checkers vs Springfield Thunderbirds?

Springfield Thunderbirds are the pick on the road against Charlotte Checkers: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Charlotte Checkers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Springfield Thunderbirds have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Charlotte Checkers sit 1st in the Atlantic Division, while Springfield Thunderbirds sit 6th in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Charlotte Checkers rate +0.04 and Springfield Thunderbirds −0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.19 goals to Charlotte Checkers. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Springfield Thunderbirds win it in regulation only 40% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 52%.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Charlotte Checkers 2, Springfield Thunderbirds 0); the latest finished Charlotte Checkers 3–2 Springfield Thunderbirds on 2026-10-23.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Springfield Thunderbirds at 53% on the moneyline across 3 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Springfield Thunderbirds −1.5 on the puck line comes in 29% of the time on our numbers, and the under 5.5 goals lands 55% against a projected 5.7 goals.

Springfield Thunderbirds to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.