Liiga

Vaasan Sport vs SaiPa prediction

Vaasan Sport6–6–2 · Home SaiPa10–3–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%SAI56%SAI

SaiPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 2–3

SaiPa are the pick on the road against Vaasan Sport: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

VAAVaasan Sport in 60'

33%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

SAISaiPa in 60'

44%

Game flow

VAA 2.1 · SAI 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–1.0

P2 · 0.7–0.9

P3 · 0.7–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)SaiPa56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)SaiPa44%2.30
Puck lineVaasan Sport +1.568%1.47
Total goalsUnder 5.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

SaiPa

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

SaiPa

44%fair 2.30

Puck line

Vaasan Sport +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Under 5.5

61%fair 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. SiikanenSAI · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7123%4.43
B. HarrisonVAA · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3520%4.98
P. FridrichSAI · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5420%5.09
A. IntonenSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4418%5.67
S. AkerstromVAA · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3317%5.86
P. PalmuSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4116%6.45
E. EmanuelssonSAI · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3515%6.68
L. HeikkinenVAA · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4015%6.68
G. DiacoVAA · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3013%7.83
I. WaltherVAA · 2 G in 14 GP · 14 GP2012%8.40

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Vaasan Sport vs SaiPa?

SaiPa are the pick on the road against Vaasan Sport: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Vaasan Sport have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. SaiPa have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Vaasan Sport sit 13th, while SaiPa sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vaasan Sport rate −0.36 and SaiPa +0.42 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.77 goals to SaiPa. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 24% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why SaiPa win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 56%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Vaasan Sport 0, SaiPa 1); the latest finished Vaasan Sport 3–5 SaiPa on 2026-10-23.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices SaiPa at 55% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, SaiPa −1.5 on the puck line comes in 32% of the time on our numbers, and the under 5.5 goals lands 61% against a projected 4.8 goals.

SaiPa to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.