Liiga

SaiPa vs JYP prediction

SaiPa10–3–1 · Home JYP9–3–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 30

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%SAI60%SAI

SaiPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.66 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with SaiPa (60%) at home against JYP, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

SAISaiPa in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

JYPJYP in 60'

30%

Game flow

SAI 2.8 · JYP 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.7

P3 · 0.8–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)SaiPa60%1.66
Regulation result (60 minutes)SaiPa50%2.01
Puck lineJYP +1.568%1.48
Total goalsOver 4.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

SaiPa

60%fair 1.66

Regulation result (60 minutes)

SaiPa

50%fair 2.01

Puck line

JYP +1.5

68%fair 1.48

Total goals

Over 4.5

62%fair 1.61

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. SiikanenSAI · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7125%4.07
P. FridrichSAI · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5421%4.66
A. IntonenSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4419%5.18
P. PalmuSAI · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4117%5.90
E. EmanuelssonSAI · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3516%6.11
L. TukiainenJYP · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4116%6.15
R. NewkirkJYP · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4416%6.22
V. OjantakanenJYP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4115%6.51
J. LassilaJYP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4315%6.84
E. PeltolaJYP · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3214%6.92

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win SaiPa vs JYP?

The numbers side with SaiPa (60%) at home against JYP, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

SaiPa have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. JYP have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

SaiPa sit 5th, while JYP sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, SaiPa rate +0.41 and JYP +0.21 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.20 goals to SaiPa. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why SaiPa win it in regulation only 50% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 60%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (SaiPa 0, JYP 1); the latest finished SaiPa 1–2 JYP on 2026-10-08.

Our own lines for this game: SaiPa −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 62% (5.2 projected).

SaiPa to win, overtime and shootout included (60%). Projected score: 3–2.