SHL

IF Bjorkloven vs Skellefteå prediction

IF Bjorkloven6–4–0 · Home Skellefteå6–2–2 · Away01:15 PM UTCOct 24

35%win chance incl. overtime65%

Our pick

65%SKE65%SKE

Skellefteå to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.53 · projected 2–3

Skellefteå are the pick on the road against IF Bjorkloven at 65%, overtime included, with a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BJOIF Bjorkloven in 60'

25%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SKESkellefteå in 60'

53%

Game flow

BJO 2.5 · SKE 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.1–0.8

P3 · 0.5–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Skellefteå65%1.53
Regulation result (60 minutes)Skellefteå53%1.87
Puck lineIF Bjorkloven +1.562%1.62
Total goalsUnder 5.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Skellefteå

65%fair 1.53

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Skellefteå

53%fair 1.87

Puck line

IF Bjorkloven +1.5

62%fair 1.62

Total goals

Under 5.5

57%fair 1.76

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. AagaardSKE · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6325%3.98
R. KovacsBJO · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5123%4.29
J. DavidssonSKE · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2218%5.61
A. OttossonBJO · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3118%5.68
O. TellstromBJO · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3217%5.81
A. JohnsonSKE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3117%5.95
P. LindholmSKE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3516%6.08
O. VuolletSKE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3216%6.28
T. RobinsBJO · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2014%6.99
L. Ekestahl-JonssonBJO · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2114%7.27

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win IF Bjorkloven vs Skellefteå?

Skellefteå are the pick on the road against IF Bjorkloven at 65%, overtime included, with a projected 3–2 score.

Skellefteå carry the stronger recent record into this SHL game, having won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game. IF Bjorkloven have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.4 and conceding 3.0 over the same stretch. That gap in form supports the visitors, who also sit 3rd in the table, one place above IF Bjorkloven in 4th.

The ratings sharpen the picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Skellefteå rate +0.33 goals per game against an average team and IF Bjorkloven rate −0.18, an edge of 0.51 goals to Skellefteå. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league, so it narrows the gap but does not close it. The model still lands on Skellefteå as the stronger side once both factors are weighed together.

About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Skellefteå win it in regulation only 53% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 65%. The market reads the game the same way, pricing Skellefteå at 71% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 7 bookmakers. That is a firmer view of the winner than our own, but both point the same direction.

IF Bjorkloven's case rests on home ice and the chance that a tight game drifts past regulation, where the 22% level-after-60 figure gives the underdog a route to the result. Their recent scoring of 1.4 a game is the concern, since it leaves little room to outpace a Skellefteå side scoring 2.4. The predictions favour the visitors, but the margin is not so wide that home ice can be ignored.

The projected 3–2 score shapes both markets. Skellefteå −1.5 on the puck line comes in 38% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal win would not cover it. The under 5.5 goals lands 57% against a projected 5.3 goals, which fits a game expected to stay close and low-scoring.

Skellefteå to win, overtime and shootout included, at 65%, with a projected 3–2 score.