AHL

Iowa Wild vs Manitoba Moose prediction

Iowa Wild3–3–2 · Home Manitoba Moose5–2–0 · Away12:00 AM UTCOct 24

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%MAN54%MAN

Manitoba Moose to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 2–3

Manitoba Moose are the lean on the road at 54%, with a projected 3–2 scoreline that leaves little room for error.

After 60 minutes

IOWIowa Wild in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

MANManitoba Moose in 60'

43%

Game flow

IOW 2.6 · MAN 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.0

P2 · 0.5–0.9

P3 · 1.0–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Manitoba Moose54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Manitoba Moose43%2.34
Puck lineIowa Wild +1.568%1.46
Total goalsUnder 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Manitoba Moose

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Manitoba Moose

43%fair 2.34

Puck line

Iowa Wild +1.5

68%fair 1.46

Total goals

Under 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. ShawIOW · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3423%4.40
H. HaightIOW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3320%4.91
J. KirklandIOW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2418%5.47
L. RiegerIOW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2015%6.65
M. KosterIOW · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1113%7.65

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Iowa Wild vs Manitoba Moose?

Manitoba Moose are the lean on the road at 54%, with a projected 3–2 scoreline that leaves little room for error.

Manitoba Moose carry the better form into this one, having won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 4.2 goals a game and allowing 2.8. Iowa Wild have won 2 of their last 5, and their 2.2 goals scored against 2.2 allowed describe a team grinding out tight games rather than pulling away from anyone. The Central Division table points the same way, with Manitoba Moose in 2nd and Iowa Wild in 4th.

The ratings sharpen that picture. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Manitoba Moose sit at +0.44 goals per game against an average team and Iowa Wild at −0.10, a gap of 0.54 goals. Home ice is worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league, so the venue softens the edge only slightly rather than erasing it.

Inside 60 minutes the model gives Manitoba Moose 43%, with a 22% chance the game is tied after three periods and heads to overtime and possibly a shootout. The market has reached a similar conclusion: with the bookmaker margin stripped out, 8 bookmakers price Manitoba Moose at 51% on the moneyline. That the model's 54% and the market's 51% sit so close tells you this is a lean, not a conviction.

The projected 3–2 score keeps everything compressed. Iowa Wild's recent habit of low-scoring games gives them a path if the game stays tight, while Manitoba Moose's 4.2 goals a game over their last 5 is the main reason the model tilts their way. Nothing here separates the teams by much.

The projected 3–2 score makes Manitoba Moose −1.5 on the puck line a thin play, landing in 32% of simulations on our numbers. The same projection sits above the 5.5 line at 6 goals, yet the under 5.5 goals lands 52%, so the total is close to a split decision rather than a clear side.

Manitoba Moose to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 3–2.