Czech Extraliga

Sparta Praha vs Olomouc prediction

Sparta Praha5–5–2 · Home Olomouc3–10–0 · Away04:00 PMOct 24

76%win chance incl. overtime24%

Our pick

76%SPA76%SPA

Sparta Praha to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.32 · projected 3–2

Sparta Praha are the pick at 76% to beat Olomouc, with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

SPASparta Praha in 60'

66%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

OLOOlomouc in 60'

17%

Game flow

SPA 3.1 · OLO 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.5

P2 · 1.2–0.6

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Sparta Praha76%1.32
Regulation result (60 minutes)Sparta Praha66%1.52
Puck lineOlomouc +2.564%1.56
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Sparta Praha

76%fair 1.32

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Sparta Praha

66%fair 1.52

Puck line

Olomouc +2.5

64%fair 1.56

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

81%fair 1.23

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. SpacekSPA · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6429%3.40
D. ShoreSPA · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5128%3.57
J. SekacSPA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4122%4.64
J. KosOLO · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4321%4.75
P. KousalSPA · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3321%4.82
J. NavratilOLO · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4320%4.96
R. KnotSPA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3218%5.50
K. J. PlasekOLO · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3014%7.10
P. GewieseOLO · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2012%8.40
D. HercikOLO · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2111%9.04

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Sparta Praha vs Olomouc?

Sparta Praha are the pick at 76% to beat Olomouc, with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

Sparta Praha carry a clear edge into this home game against Olomouc. The model gives the home side 76% to win with overtime and a shootout included, and 66% to settle it inside 60 minutes, while a tie after three periods comes up 17% of the time. The most likely final score is 3–2, a margin that fits the gap between the two sides rather than a rout.

Form points the same way. Sparta Praha have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 2.0 and allowing 1.8 goals a game, a modest but stable run. Olomouc have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.4 and conceding 3.4, and that defensive record is the biggest problem they bring into this matchup. The table separates them too: Sparta Praha are 8th, Olomouc 14th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Sparta Praha rate +0.11 goals per game against an average team and Olomouc −0.71, an edge of 0.82 goals to Sparta Praha. Home ice adds about 0.15 goals a game in this league, which pushes the gap wider still. The one recent meeting went Sparta Praha's way, and the latest finished Olomouc 2–5 Sparta Praha on 2026-09-16. The market reads it similarly: across 9 bookmakers, with the margin removed, Sparta Praha are priced at 80% on the moneyline.

Olomouc's case rests on the possibility that Sparta Praha's low-scoring form keeps this close, since 2.0 goals a game is not a heavy output. A 17% chance of a tie after regulation leaves room for overtime and a shootout, where the favourite's advantage narrows. Still, the ratings gap, the home-ice bump and the head-to-head record all point to Sparta Praha.

The projected 3–2 score leaves Sparta Praha −2.5 on the puck line landing only 36% of the time on our numbers, so a two-goal win would not be enough to cover it. The projected 5.4 goals sits just under the 5.5 line, and the under lands 55%. The moneyline is the cleaner side of this game; the puck line asks for a margin the model does not expect.

Sparta Praha to win, overtime and shootout included, at 76%, with a projected score of 3–2.