Czech Extraliga

Mladá Boleslav vs České Budějovice prediction

Mladá Boleslav4–8–1 · Home České Budějovice7–5–1 · Away04:00 PMOct 25

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%MLA51%MLA

Mladá Boleslav to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.94 · projected 3–2

Mladá Boleslav are 51% favourites at home against České Budějovice, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

MLAMladá Boleslav in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

ČESČeské Budějovice in 60'

40%

Game flow

MLA 2.6 · ČES 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.9

P2 · 1.0–0.7

P3 · 0.8–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Mladá Boleslav51%1.94
Regulation result (60 minutes)České Budějovice40%2.50
Puck lineČeské Budějovice +1.575%1.34
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Mladá Boleslav

51%fair 1.94

Regulation result (60 minutes)

České Budějovice

40%fair 2.50

Puck line

České Budějovice +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

N. OlesenČES · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7330%3.29
J. OrdosČES · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5225%3.93
J. StencelČES · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.77
F. GavarsMLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4220%4.97
T. HykaMLA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2419%5.19
F. AhlČES · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3318%5.44
J. PourČES · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4018%5.48
J. MartelMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3117%5.72
M. GardonMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3417%5.76
A. MorandMLA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2214%7.03

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

N. Olesen · Rolandhino1, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who will win Mladá Boleslav vs České Budějovice?

Mladá Boleslav are 51% favourites at home against České Budějovice, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

Mladá Boleslav and České Budějovice arrive at this one from opposite directions in the table: the hosts are 12th, the visitors 5th. Recent form points the same way, with České Budějovice winning 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game, and Mladá Boleslav winning 2 of their last 5 while scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.0. On those numbers alone the away side looks the stronger team right now.

The ratings sharpen that picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Mladá Boleslav rate −0.47 and České Budějovice +0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.54 goals to České Budějovice. Home ice is worth about 0.10 goals a game in this league, which narrows but does not close the gap. That is why the model still lands close to even, with Mladá Boleslav at 38% to win inside 60 minutes and a 22% chance of a tie after three periods.

The head-to-head record is short and favours the hosts: the teams have met 1 time recently, Mladá Boleslav 1, České Budějovice 0, the latest finishing České Budějovice 2–3 Mladá Boleslav on 2026-09-16. The market reads the game much as the model does, pricing Mladá Boleslav at 52% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers once the margin is removed. With the ratings favouring the visitor and home ice plus the single recent result favouring the host, the predictions settle on a lean rather than a clear edge.

The projected 3–2 scoreline fits that balance: a one-goal game that could easily need more than 60 minutes, which is why overtime and shootout are included in the 51% figure. Neither side has a convincing claim to dominate, and České Budějovice's form and adjusted rating give them a real case as the underdog. The lean toward Mladá Boleslav is therefore a thin one, and the model itself treats it as close to a coin flip.

The projected 3–2 final sits right on the edge of the puck line: Mladá Boleslav −1.5 comes in 25% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal margin leaves that line short. The same 3–2 projection totals 5.8 goals against a line of 5.5, yet the under lands 54%, which says the model expects the game to stay near that score rather than run past it. Both lines are priced as marginal calls, consistent with a game the model rates near even.

Mladá Boleslav to win, overtime and shootout included (51%), with a projected 3–2 final.