Czech Extraliga

Hradec Králové vs Pardubice prediction

Hradec Králové7–5–0 · Home Pardubice10–2–0 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Our pick

55%PAR55%PAR

Pardubice to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 2–3

Pardubice are the pick to win on the road at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2 over Hradec Králové.

After 60 minutes

HRAHradec Králové in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

PARPardubice in 60'

44%

Game flow

HRA 2.8 · PAR 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.9–1.3

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Pardubice55%1.82
Regulation result (60 minutes)Pardubice44%2.30
Puck lineHradec Králové +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Pardubice

55%fair 1.82

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Pardubice

44%fair 2.30

Puck line

Hradec Králové +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. SmejkalPAR · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8629%3.44
L. RadilHRA · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4323%4.36
K. KlimaHRA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4523%4.42
D. TomasekPAR · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5922%4.50
M. StranskyPAR · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6422%4.63
J. PerretHRA · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3521%4.77
R. CervenkaPAR · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5420%5.04
A. JerglHRA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%5.08
A. TamasiHRA · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3219%5.16
J. MandatPAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.29

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: D. Tomasek: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; R. Cervenka: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; J. Mandat: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?

Pardubice are the pick to win on the road at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2 over Hradec Králové.

Pardubice arrive as the form team in this matchup, having won all five of their recent games while averaging 4.4 goals scored and 2.6 allowed. Hradec Králové have taken three of their last five, with 3.0 goals for and 2.6 against over the same stretch. The table reflects that gap: Pardubice sit 2nd, Hradec Králové 4th.

The ratings sharpen the picture. Adjusted for opposition, Pardubice rate +0.51 goals per game against an average team and Hradec Králové +0.06, an edge of 0.45 goals to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league, so it trims the advantage without erasing it. That is why the model makes Pardubice a modest favourite rather than a clear one.

In regulation the model gives Pardubice 44% to win inside 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 21%, sending the game to overtime and possibly a shootout. The recent head-to-head offers Hradec Králové some encouragement: the teams have met once recently, and that game finished Pardubice 3–5 Hradec Králové on 2026-09-16. The market is not swayed by it, pricing Pardubice at 55% on the moneyline across five bookmakers once the margin is removed, which matches the model.

The projected score of 3–2 sits comfortably inside a one-goal game, which fits a matchup where the model sees little separating the sides. Pardubice's scoring rate of 4.4 over their winning run is the strongest argument for them, but Hradec Králové's own 3.0 goals a game and the home-ice bump keep this from being one-sided. With the tie probability at 21%, the outcome could easily turn on overtime or a shootout.

The projected 3–2 scoreline implies a one-goal margin, which works against Pardubice −1.5 on the puck line; our numbers give that line just 31%. With 6.1 projected goals, the over 5.5 lands 51% of the time, a near coin flip on the total. The moneyline price of 55% for Pardubice is the cleanest reflection of the model's lean.

Pardubice to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2.