NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins prediction

St. Louis Blues5–4–1 · Home Boston Bruins8–2–1 · Away08:00 PMOct 29

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%BOS53%BOS

Boston Bruins to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Boston Bruins (53%) on the road against St. Louis Blues, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LOUSt. Louis Blues in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BOSBoston Bruins in 60'

43%

Game flow

LOU 2.9 · BOS 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Boston Bruins53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Boston Bruins43%2.32
Puck lineSt. Louis Blues +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Boston Bruins

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Boston Bruins

43%fair 2.32

Puck line

St. Louis Blues +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 22

JH30HoferProjected

DH81HollowayLW RT18ThomasC JS21SnuggerudRW

1st line

13:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Dylan Holloway LW	18:40	3	7	10
18	Robert Thomas C	19:27	1	4	5
21	Jimmy Snuggerud RW	17:34	6	2	8

23 points this season

PB89BuchnevichLW JN63NeighboursC DD15DvorskyRW

2nd line

12:53 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Pavel Buchnevich LW	17:14	2	4	6
63	Jake Neighbours C	16:38	3	2	5
15	Dalibor Dvorsky RW	15:05	2	1	3

14 points this season

CM77McMichaelLW MM83McTavishC JB29BerggrenRW

3rd line

11:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Connor McMichael LW	13:14	2	5	7
83	Mason McTavish C	14:06	6	4	10
29	Jonatan Berggren RW	13:49	2	3	5

22 points this season

PS22SuterLW AK41KaskimakiC OS28StenbergRW

4th line

10:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Pius Suter LW	11:50	3	3	6
41	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C	12:38	0	1	1
28	Otto Stenberg RW	11:36	0	1	1

8 points this season

PB6BrobergD JB72BarronD

1st pair

9:56 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6
72	Justin Barron D	20:23	1	4	5

11 points this season

CF17FowlerD BC25CarloD

2nd pair

15:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Cam Fowler D	20:32	0	4	4
25	Brandon Carlo D	19:27	0	1	1

5 points this season

CP55ParaykoD AJ36JiricekD

3rd pair

6:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
55	Colton Parayko D	18:36	0	4	4
36	Adam Jiricek D	16:20	1	1	2

6 points this season

RT18ThomasF DH81HollowayF JS21SnuggerudF

JN63NeighboursF PB6BrobergD

Power play unit 1

1:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Robert Thomas F	19:27	1	4	5
81	Dylan Holloway F	18:40	3	7	10
21	Jimmy Snuggerud F	17:34	6	2	8
63	Jake Neighbours F	16:38	3	2	5
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6

34 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Joel Hofer #30 (Projected) · Jordan Binnington #50 (Backup)

Boston Bruins

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

13:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
88	David Pastrňák LW	16:37	6	10	16
18	Pavel Zacha C	16:11	2	4	6
10	JJ Peterka RW	17:52	4	3	7

29 points this season

39GeekieLW

93MintenC MK92KhusnutdinovRW

2nd line

11:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
39	Morgan Geekie LW	14:34	1	5	6
93	Fraser Minten C	15:28	4	4	8
92	Marat Khusnutdinov RW	14:22	2	3	5

19 points this season

11MittelstadtLW

44HagensC

28LindholmRW

3rd line

10:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
11	Casey Mittelstadt LW	15:03	3	2	5
44	James Hagens C	15:04	3	4	7
28	Elias Lindholm RW	13:43	4	4	8

20 points this season

84JeannotLW MK47KastelicC

51PoitrasRW

4th line

9:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
84	Tanner Jeannot LW	13:51	1	2	3
47	Mark Kastelic C	14:14	2	4	6
51	Matthew Poitras RW	13:34	4	3	7

16 points this season

91ZadorovD

17BorgenD

1st pair

17:29 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Nikita Zadorov D	19:48	0	4	4
17	Will Borgen D	19:45	1	2	3

7 points this season

27LindholmD

73McAvoyD

2nd pair

15:54 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Hampus Lindholm D	20:21	1	3	4
73	Charlie McAvoy D	19:01	1	5	6

10 points this season

6LohreiD FB42BrunetD

3rd pair

15:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Mason Lohrei D	20:14	2	3	5
42	Frederic Brunet D	18:18	1	2	3

8 points this season

10PeterkaF

93MintenF

44HagensF

11MittelstadtF FB42BrunetD

Power play unit 1

1:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	JJ Peterka F	17:52	4	3	7
93	Fraser Minten F	15:28	4	4	8
44	James Hagens F	15:04	3	4	7
11	Casey Mittelstadt F	15:03	3	2	5
42	Frederic Brunet D	18:18	1	2	3

30 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:20 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
88	David Pastrňák F	16:37	6	10	16
18	Pavel Zacha F	16:11	2	4	6
39	Morgan Geekie F	14:34	1	5	6
28	Elias Lindholm F	13:43	4	4	8
73	Charlie McAvoy D	19:01	1	5	6

42 points this season

MK92KhusnutdinovF MK47KastelicF

27LindholmD

6LohreiD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:00 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
92	Marat Khusnutdinov F	14:22	2	3	5
47	Mark Kastelic F	14:14	2	4	6
27	Hampus Lindholm D	20:21	1	3	4
6	Mason Lohrei D	20:14	2	3	5

20 points this season

Goalies: Jeremy Swayman #1 (Projected) · Michael Dipietro #30 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (18)

Jordan Binnington · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
David Pastrňák · Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pavel Zacha · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
JJ Peterka · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Morgan Geekie · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Fraser Minten · Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0
Casey Mittelstadt · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
James Hagens · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Elias Lindholm · Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tanner Jeannot · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Matthew Poitras · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Nikita Zadorov · m_kania, CC BY 2.0
Will Borgen · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Hampus Lindholm · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Charlie McAvoy · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Mason Lohrei · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Michael Dipietro · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jeremy Swayman · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Joel Hofer LOU

.921 save percentage

2.17 GAA · 4–2–1 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Jeremy Swayman BOS

.928 save percentage

1.98 GAA · 6–1–1 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Jeremy Swayman · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

David PastrňákBOS · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6930%3.37
Jimmy SnuggerudLOU · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6429%3.49
Mason McTavishLOU · C · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6628%3.59
Matthew PoitrasBOS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4523%4.34
Dylan HollowayLOU · LW · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3721%4.65
Elias LindholmBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.68
JJ PeterkaBOS · RW · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%4.92
Fraser MintenBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%5.04
Jake NeighboursLOU · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.75
Pius SuterLOU · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.96

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

David Pastrňák · Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Poitras · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Elias Lindholm · Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0
JJ Peterka · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Fraser Minten · Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins?

The numbers side with Boston Bruins (53%) on the road against St. Louis Blues, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Boston Bruins have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch.

St. Louis Blues sit 9th in the Western Conference, while Boston Bruins sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, St. Louis Blues rate +0.15 and Boston Bruins +0.61 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.46 goals to Boston Bruins. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Boston Bruins win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Boston Bruins −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Boston Bruins to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.