SHL

Skelleftea vs Linköping prediction

Skelleftea6–2–2 · Home Linköping3–6–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

70%win chance incl. overtime30%

Our pick

70%SKE70%SKE

Skelleftea to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.42 · projected 3–2

Skellefteå are the pick at home against Linkoping: a 70% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

SKESkelleftea in 60'

60%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LINLinköping in 60'

21%

Game flow

SKE 3.1 · LIN 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.5

P2 · 0.9–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Skelleftea70%1.42
Regulation result (60 minutes)Skelleftea60%1.67
Puck lineLinköping +1.558%1.73
Total goalsUnder 5.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Skelleftea

70%fair 1.42

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Skelleftea

60%fair 1.67

Puck line

Linköping +1.5

58%fair 1.73

Total goals

Under 5.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. AagaardSKE · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6329%3.44
J. DavidssonSKE · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2221%4.80
A. JohnsonSKE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3120%5.09
P. LindholmSKE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3519%5.19
O. VuolletSKE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3219%5.36
L. HultstromLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2314%7.00
C. MarodyLIN · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2214%7.03
B. ShinniminLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%7.37
A. DegerstedtLIN · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2313%7.72
M. KokkonenLIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2112%8.20

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Skelleftea vs Linköping?

Skellefteå are the pick at home against Linkoping: a 70% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Skellefteå have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Linkoping have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Skellefteå sit 3rd, while Linkoping sit 14th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Skellefteå rate +0.32 and Linkoping −0.48 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.80 goals to Skellefteå. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Skellefteå 60% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Skellefteå −1.5 on the puck line (42%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 62% (5.2 projected).

Skellefteå to win, overtime and shootout included (70%). Projected score: 3–2.