Mestis

Pyry vs Kettera prediction

Pyry4–8–1 · Home Kettera3–7–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%PYR57%PYR

Pyry to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.77 · projected 3–2

Pyry are 57% favourites at home against Kettera, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

PYRPyry in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

KETKettera in 60'

33%

Game flow

PYR 2.8 · KET 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 0.8–0.8

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Pyry57%1.77
Regulation result (60 minutes)Pyry46%2.19
Puck lineKettera +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Pyry

57%fair 1.77

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Pyry

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

Kettera +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

58%fair 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. LaurellKET · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5330%3.32
L. TiihonenKET · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4123%4.38
V. HaatajaPYR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4222%4.52
T. MantymakiPYR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4121%4.66
T. HietamakiPYR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4120%4.92
J. VirolainenPYR · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3519%5.18
T. KaihuaPYR · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3117%5.96
F. ViitaKET · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1115%6.71
J. LehtinenKET · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2114%7.08
S. SalmelaKET · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1014%7.19

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Pyry vs Kettera?

Pyry are 57% favourites at home against Kettera, with a projected 3–2 final.

Pyry sit 8th and Kettera 9th, so the table separates them by a single place and little else. The model gives Pyry 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 21%, which means the game is more likely to be settled in regulation than in overtime or a shootout, but not by a wide margin. Home ice, worth about 0.44 goals a game in this league, is the main reason Pyry carry the lean.

Recent form is poor on both sides: each has won 1 of its last 5. What differs is how they got there. Pyry have scored 2.0 and allowed 4.2 goals a game over that stretch, a leaky profile, while Kettera have scored 0.8 and allowed 1.8, a low-event one. Kettera's problem is scoring; Pyry's is keeping the puck out.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Pyry rate −0.37 and Kettera −0.32 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.05 goals to Kettera. That is a small rating gap, and home ice more than covers it, which is why the favourite's case rests on venue rather than on underlying strength. The two recent meetings are split (Pyry 1, Kettera 1), and the latest finished Kettera 2–0 Pyry on 2026-10-10, so the underdog has a recent result to point to.

The market side of the model is modest: Pyry at 57% with overtime and shootout included is close to a coin flip, and the pick should be treated with care. Kettera's case is that they concede little and have already beaten Pyry recently; Pyry's is that they play at home and the ratings are nearly level.

The projected 3–2 final sits under the 5.5 total, and the model prices the under at 58% with 5.4 projected goals, so the numbers point slightly to a low-scoring game. On the puck line, Pyry −1.5 comes in at 29%, meaning a one-goal margin is the more likely outcome and the favourite is not a strong candidate to cover. The 21% chance of a tie after three periods also keeps the result close to the projected score.

Pyry to win, overtime and shootout included, at 57%, with a projected 3–2 final.