Mestis

K-Vantaa vs TUTO prediction

K-Vantaa8–3–0 · Home TUTO8–1–1 · Away02:00 PM UTCOct 24

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%KVA53%KVA

K-Vantaa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

K-Vantaa are the pick at home against TUTO at 53% to win including overtime, with a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KVAK-Vantaa in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

TUTTUTO in 60'

37%

Game flow

KVA 2.8 · TUT 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.5

P2 · 0.7–0.7

P3 · 1.5–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)K-Vantaa53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)K-Vantaa42%2.39
Puck lineTUTO +1.574%1.36
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

K-Vantaa

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

K-Vantaa

42%fair 2.39

Puck line

TUTO +1.5

74%fair 1.36

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. ValilaTUT · 10 G in 7 GP · 7 GP10940%2.50
V. RasanenKVA · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6531%3.22
R. GustafssonKVA · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6230%3.38
S. MoilanenKVA · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4225%3.93
R. LahnaviikKVA · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5023%4.30
S. MarkkulaTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP41020%5.10
E. HapponenTUT · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3619%5.18
T. VuoriTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4419%5.21
N. TenhovuoriKVA · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3319%5.22
R. TurunenTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4318%5.50

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win K-Vantaa vs TUTO?

K-Vantaa are the pick at home against TUTO at 53% to win including overtime, with a projected 3–2 score.

K-Vantaa hold second place and TUTO third, so little separates the two in the table, and the model's lean toward the home side is narrow rather than emphatic. Home ice is worth about 0.44 goals a game in this league, and that allowance is what tips a near-even matchup toward K-Vantaa at 53%. The pick comes with the caveat that it is close to a coin flip.

TUTO arrive on the stronger run, having won 5 of their last 5 while scoring 4.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. K-Vantaa have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, TUTO rate +0.36 and K-Vantaa +0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.29 goals to TUTO, which explains why the home advantage only just covers the gap.

The recent head-to-head is short: the teams have met 1 time recently, K-Vantaa 1, TUTO 0, with the latest finished K-Vantaa 4–1 TUTO on 2026-09-12. About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, so K-Vantaa win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 53%. The market's view of the winner is therefore a lean to the home side, not a clear verdict.

The projected 3–2 score sits under the 5.5 total goals line, and the under carries 54% with 5.7 projected, so the numbers point slightly to a lower-scoring game than the line suggests. On the puck line, K-Vantaa −1.5 comes in at 26%, which fits a one-goal projection and a game the model expects to stay tight. TUTO's recent scoring rate of 4.8 goals a game is the main counterweight to that under lean.

K-Vantaa to win, overtime and shootout included, at 53%, with a projected score of 3–2.