SHL

Timra vs Växjö prediction

Timra5–5–0 · Home Växjö4–5–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%TIM54%TIM

Timra to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Timrå 54% favourites at home against Vaxjo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

TIMTimra in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VÄXVäxjö in 60'

36%

Game flow

TIM 2.6 · VÄX 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 0.7–0.7

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Timra54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Timra43%2.33
Puck lineVäxjö +1.574%1.36
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Timra

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Timra

43%fair 2.33

Puck line

Växjö +1.5

74%fair 1.36

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.64

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. NadeauVÄX · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6225%4.08
R. GardinerTIM · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.18
J. PerssonVÄX · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5122%4.54
E. GenborgTIM · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3621%4.75
B. CooperVÄX · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4219%5.30
D. McLaughlinTIM · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2717%5.90
M. HardegardTIM · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2116%6.23
L. ForsellTIM · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2116%6.40
K. HenrikssonVÄX · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3115%6.72
D. RasmussenVÄX · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2314%7.27

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Timra vs Växjö?

Our model makes Timrå 54% favourites at home against Vaxjo, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Timrå have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Vaxjo have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Timrå sit 10th, while Vaxjo sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Timrå rate −0.32 and Vaxjo −0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.17 goals to Vaxjo. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Timrå win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

Our own lines for this game: Timrå −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 61% (5.1 projected).

Timrå to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.