KHL

Yekaterinburg vs Nizhny Novgorod prediction

Yekaterinburg7–8–2 · Home Nizhny Novgorod11–5–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 29

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%NIZ53%NIZ

Nizhny Novgorod to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Nizhny Novgorod 53% favourites on the road against Yekaterinburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

YEKYekaterinburg in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

NIZNizhny Novgorod in 60'

42%

Game flow

YEK 2.3 · NIZ 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 0.7–0.6

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nizhny Novgorod53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nizhny Novgorod42%2.35
Puck lineYekaterinburg +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nizhny Novgorod

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nizhny Novgorod

42%fair 2.35

Puck line

Yekaterinburg +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.65

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SeroukhNIZ · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP9428%3.57
D. SprongYEK · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7224%4.17
S. GoncharukNIZ · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5220%4.91
A. KadeykinYEK · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5220%5.08
A. GarayevNIZ · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3219%5.23
J. BlackerYEK · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3118%5.51
V. TkachyovNIZ · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4317%5.97
M. DenezhkinYEK · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4217%6.03
M. TarasovYEK · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3215%6.47
M. PolyakovNIZ · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2315%6.65

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Yekaterinburg vs Nizhny Novgorod?

Our model makes Nizhny Novgorod 53% favourites on the road against Yekaterinburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Yekaterinburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Nizhny Novgorod have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Yekaterinburg sit 9th in the Eastern Conference, while Nizhny Novgorod sit 4th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Yekaterinburg rate −0.03 and Nizhny Novgorod +0.24 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.27 goals to Nizhny Novgorod. Home ice is worth about 0.09 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Nizhny Novgorod win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Nizhny Novgorod −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 61% (5.1 projected).

Nizhny Novgorod to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.