KHL

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Dynamo Moscow prediction

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl12–5–0 · Home Dynamo Moscow7–10–3 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 23

67%win chance incl. overtime33%

Our pick

67%LOK67%LOK

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.49 · projected 2–1

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at home against Dynamo Moscow, with a 67% chance to win including overtime and a projected 2–1 score.

After 60 minutes

LOKLokomotiv Yaroslavl in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

DYNDynamo Moscow in 60'

23%

Game flow

LOK 2.6 · DYN 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.3

P2 · 0.7–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl67%1.49
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl55%1.83
Puck lineDynamo Moscow +1.566%1.52
Total goalsOver 4.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

67%fair 1.49

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

55%fair 1.83

Puck line

Dynamo Moscow +1.5

66%fair 1.52

Total goals

Over 4.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

80%fair 1.25

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. RadulovLOK · 8 G in 16 GP · 16 GP8428%3.56
M. LetunovDYN · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7325%4.07
A. KayumovLOK · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3221%4.71
N. MerkleyDYN · 6 G in 20 GP · 20 GP6319%5.33
P. ShenDYN · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5318%5.52
G. FioreLOK · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4418%5.65
G. IvanovLOK · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4215%6.57
Y. SurinLOK · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4315%6.62
D. PylenkovDYN · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4515%6.64
J. WealDYN · 2 G in 19 GP · 19 GP259%11.07

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: A. Radulov: Александр Головко, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Dynamo Moscow?

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at home against Dynamo Moscow, with a 67% chance to win including overtime and a projected 2–1 score.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl carry the stronger recent form into this game, having won 3 of their last 5 while averaging 3.2 goals scored and 2.0 allowed. Dynamo Moscow have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.6 over the same stretch. The gap in both ends of the ice points to the home side controlling the run of play.

The table reinforces that read: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl sit 2nd in the Western Conference and Dynamo Moscow 9th. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl rate +0.30 goals per game against an average team and Dynamo Moscow −0.37, an edge of 0.67 goals to the hosts. Home ice adds about 0.09 goals a game in this league, which only widens the margin.

The market sees the same picture. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, 4 bookmakers price Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at 69% on the moneyline, close to our 67%. About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Lokomotiv Yaroslavl win in regulation only 55% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout account for the rest of the 67%.

Dynamo Moscow's case rests on the low-scoring nature of the matchup rather than on recent results. A projected 2–1 score leaves little room for error, and the visitors' 2.4 goals a game over their last 5 suggests they can keep this close even if they are second-best on the balance of play.

The projected 2–1 score sits well under the 4.5 total goals line, where the over carries 54% (4.7 projected), so the numbers lean toward the over even as the score forecast stays low. On the puck line, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl −1.5 is priced at 34%, reflecting that a one-goal margin is the most likely outcome and that covering the extra goal is the less probable side.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win, overtime and shootout included (67%). Projected score: 2–1.