KHL

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Cherepovets prediction

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl13–5–0 · Home Cherepovets11–6–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

62%win chance incl. overtime38%

Our pick

62%LOK62%LOK

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.61 · projected 2–1

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at 62% to beat Cherepovets, with a projected score of 2–1.

After 60 minutes

LOKLokomotiv Yaroslavl in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

CHECherepovets in 60'

28%

Game flow

LOK 2.4 · CHE 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.5

P2 · 0.6–0.8

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl62%1.61
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lokomotiv Yaroslavl50%1.99
Puck lineCherepovets +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 4.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

62%fair 1.61

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

50%fair 1.99

Puck line

Cherepovets +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 4.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. RadulovLOK · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8425%4.04
A. KayumovLOK · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4323%4.35
D. YanCHE · 8 G in 19 GP · 19 GP8121%4.85
R. AbrosimovCHE · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5419%5.30
G. IvanovLOK · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5517%5.88
I. IvantsovCHE · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5216%6.28
G. FioreLOK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4416%6.44
I. PodshivalovCHE · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3413%7.50
Y. SurinLOK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4413%7.54
N. A. PopugayevCHE · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4213%7.78

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

A. Radulov · Александр Головко, CC BY-SA 3.0

Who will win Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Cherepovets?

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are the pick at 62% to beat Cherepovets, with a projected score of 2–1.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl hold a narrow edge in this Western Conference matchup, and it comes from several directions at once. The ratings, adjusted for opposition, put them at +0.28 goals per game against an average team, against +0.19 for Cherepovets, a gap of 0.09. Add home ice, worth about 0.11 goals a game in this league, and the model's preference for the home side is built on more than table position alone.

Both teams arrive in similar scoring form, which keeps the game close on paper. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.2 per game; Cherepovets have won 4 of their last 5, also scoring 3.2 but allowing just 1.8. The table reflects how little separates them: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are 2nd in the Western Conference and Cherepovets 3rd.

The recent head-to-head offers no clear tiebreaker, with one win apiece in 2 meetings and the latest going Cherepovets' way, 5–2 on 2026-10-15. That result is a reminder that the underdog's case rests on tighter defence and the ability to keep the game low-scoring. The market still leans toward the home side: after the bookmaker margin is removed, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are priced at 65% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers, close to the model's 62%.

The probability split also explains why a regulation win is not the headline number. About 22% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Lokomotiv Yaroslavl win in regulation only 50% of the time, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of their 62%. The most likely final score, 2–1, fits that picture of a tight, low-event game decided late.

The projected 2–1 scoreline sits just under our 4.5 total goals line, and the over carries 55% (4.8 projected), so the numbers point slightly toward more scoring than the single most likely score suggests. On the puck line, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at −1.5 is given only 25%, consistent with a one-goal margin being the central expectation. The 62% win probability includes overtime and the shootout, so backing the home side on the moneyline is a different proposition from asking them to cover the puck line.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win, overtime and shootout included, at 62%, with a projected score of 2–1.