Latvian Hockey League

HC Panter vs Energija Elektrenai prediction

HC Panter5–3–1 · Home Energija Elektrenai1–3–0 · Away03:00 PM UTCOct 24

70%win chance incl. overtime30%

Our pick

70%PAN70%PAN

HC Panter to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.43 · projected 3–2

Our model makes HC Panter 70% favourites at home against Energija Elektrenai, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

PANHC Panter in 60'

60%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

ENEEnergija Elektrenai in 60'

22%

Game flow

PAN 3.6 · ENE 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.5

P2 · 1.1–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)HC Panter70%1.43
Regulation result (60 minutes)HC Panter60%1.67
Puck lineEnergija Elektrenai +1.562%1.62
Total goalsUnder 6.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

HC Panter

70%fair 1.43

Regulation result (60 minutes)

HC Panter

60%fair 1.67

Puck line

Energija Elektrenai +1.5

62%fair 1.62

Total goals

Under 6.5

51%fair 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. LindePAN · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6737%2.71
N. PuzakovPAN · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6534%2.92
E. NevolainenPAN · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3526%3.88
M. PotsinokPAN · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3525%4.05
Fedorovits NikitaPAN · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3524%4.24

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HC Panter vs Energija Elektrenai?

Our model makes HC Panter 70% favourites at home against Energija Elektrenai, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

HC Panter have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Energija Elektrenai have won 1 of their last 4, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch.

HC Panter sit 3rd, while Energija Elektrenai sit 9th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HC Panter rate +0.14 and Energija Elektrenai −0.42 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.56 goals to HC Panter. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives HC Panter 60% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices HC Panter at 73% on the moneyline across 4 bookmakers.

Our own lines for this game: HC Panter −1.5 on the puck line (38%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 51% (6.5 projected).

HC Panter to win, overtime and shootout included (70%). Projected score: 3–2.