Czech Extraliga

Třinec vs Karlovy Vary prediction

Třinec11–0–1 · Home Karlovy Vary8–4–0 · Away10:30 AMOct 25

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%TŘI66%TŘI

Třinec to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 3–2

Třinec are the pick to win at home against Karlovy Vary at 66%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

TŘITřinec in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

KARKarlovy Vary in 60'

25%

Game flow

TŘI 3.0 · KAR 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.0

P2 · 0.9–0.5

P3 · 1.2–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Třinec66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)Třinec55%1.83
Puck lineKarlovy Vary +1.561%1.64
Total goalsOver 4.564%1.57
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Třinec

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Třinec

55%fair 1.83

Puck line

Karlovy Vary +1.5

61%fair 1.64

Total goals

Over 4.5

64%fair 1.57

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. VozenilekTŘI · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7423%4.32
F. PyrochtaTŘI · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5222%4.56
M. KubiesaTŘI · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5422%4.59
O. KovarcikTŘI · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5220%5.08
D. StastnyKAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4419%5.34
M. DanoTŘI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.36
O. BeranekKAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.93
P. TomekKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3416%6.41
N. JonesKAR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4316%6.41
J. CernochKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3415%6.54

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (4)

D. Vozenilek · Zoner60, CC BY-SA 4.0
M. Kubiesa · Zoner60, CC0
O. Kovarcik · Zoner60, CC BY-SA 4.0
M. Dano · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who will win Třinec vs Karlovy Vary?

Třinec are the pick to win at home against Karlovy Vary at 66%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

The table sets up a meeting between first and third, and the ratings back up the standings: Třinec come in at +0.72 goals per game against an average team, Karlovy Vary at +0.26, a gap of 0.46 goals before home ice adds roughly another 0.10. That combination is the foundation of the 66% figure, which counts overtime and the shootout. Karlovy Vary's case rests on a tighter recent profile rather than a higher ceiling.

Recent form is closer than the table suggests. Both sides have won 3 of their last 5, but Třinec have done it with more scoring, at 3.2 goals a game while allowing 2.8, whereas Karlovy Vary have scored 2.2 and conceded 2.0 over the same stretch. Karlovy Vary's numbers point to low-scoring games that keep them within reach, which is exactly the kind of game where a single goal decides it.

The head-to-head sample is thin: the teams have met once recently, and that game finished Karlovy Vary 0–2 Třinec on 2026-09-15. The market reads the matchup the same way as the model, pricing Třinec at 69% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers once the margin is removed, close to our 66%. The small gap between the two figures is the room Karlovy Vary have to make this uncomfortable.

About 21% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Třinec win in regulation only 54% of the time on our numbers; the rest of the 66% comes from overtime and the shootout. That split matters for how the game is likely to unfold: a Třinec win is the most probable outcome, but a comfortable one is not the base case.

The projected 3–2 final sits right on the over 4.5 line, and our numbers put the over at 64% against a projection of 5.5 goals, so the model sees more scoring than the bare final score implies. On the puck line, Třinec −1.5 comes in 39% of the time, meaning the single-goal margin is the more likely shape of a Třinec win and the cover is the minority outcome. The moneyline price of 66% lines up with the market's 69%, leaving little disagreement about the winner.

Třinec to win, overtime and shootout included, at 66%, with a projected score of 3–2.