KHL

Salavat Ufa vs Bars Kazan prediction

Salavat Ufa10–8–1 · Home Bars Kazan9–8–2 · Away02:30 PMOct 25

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%SAL53%SAL

Salavat Ufa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

Salavat Ufa are the pick to win at 53% probability, with a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

SALSalavat Ufa in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

BARBars Kazan in 60'

36%

Game flow

SAL 2.6 · BAR 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.8

P2 · 0.9–0.8

P3 · 1.2–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Salavat Ufa53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Salavat Ufa42%2.41
Puck lineBars Kazan +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 5.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.18

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Salavat Ufa

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Salavat Ufa

42%fair 2.41

Puck line

Bars Kazan +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 5.5

61%fair 1.65

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.18

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. SemyonovBAR · 7 G in 19 GP · 19 GP7326%3.89
S. RempalSAL · 8 G in 19 GP · 19 GP8525%4.01
J. RodewaldSAL · 7 G in 19 GP · 19 GP7320%4.92
S. TerekhovBAR · 5 G in 19 GP · 19 GP5319%5.39
D. BrosseauSAL · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6218%5.43
G. DenisenkoBAR · 5 G in 19 GP · 19 GP5318%5.62
D. KatelevskyBAR · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4118%5.62
M. MillerBAR · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4218%5.71
D. Orlovich-GrudkovSAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3217%5.91
M. KuznetsovSAL · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2417%5.95

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Salavat Ufa vs Bars Kazan?

Salavat Ufa are the pick to win at 53% probability, with a projected score of 3–2.

Salavat Ufa's edge in this matchup is narrow but real, built on home ice and a small ratings advantage. The model puts them at 53% to win including overtime and a shootout, which makes this close to a coin flip. Bars Kazan sit just one place behind them in the Eastern Conference, so the table offers little separation either way.

Form leans toward Salavat Ufa, who have won 3 of their last 5 while Bars Kazan have won 2 of their last 5. Salavat Ufa's recent games have been loose at both ends, with 3.0 goals scored and 3.2 conceded per game, whereas Bars Kazan have been tighter at 2.2 scored and 2.2 allowed. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Salavat Ufa rate −0.07 and Bars Kazan −0.11 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.03 goals to Salavat Ufa, and home ice is worth about 0.10 goals a game in this league.

The head-to-head record is thin and unfriendly to the home side: the teams have met 1 time recently, and that game finished Salavat Ufa 3–4 Bars Kazan on 2026-09-16. Inside regulation the model gives Salavat Ufa 41% to win in 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The betting market agrees with the model, pricing Salavat Ufa at 53% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 2 bookmakers.

The projected score of 3–2 sits right on the 5.5 total line, and with the under at 61% on a 5.3 projected goals figure, the numbers favour the game staying below that mark. On the puck line, Salavat Ufa −1.5 carries only 26%, so a home win by a single goal is the more likely route. The 3–2 projection reflects a game decided by the finest of margins.

Salavat Ufa to win, overtime and shootout included, at 53%, with a projected score of 3–2.