NHL

Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction

Washington Capitals5–4–0 · Home Philadelphia Flyers3–6–3 · Away07:30 PMOct 28

62%win chance incl. overtime38%

Our pick

62%WAS62%WAS

Washington Capitals to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.61 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Washington Capitals (62%) at home against Philadelphia Flyers, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

WASWashington Capitals in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

PHIPhiladelphia Flyers in 60'

28%

Game flow

WAS 3.2 · PHI 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.4–0.7

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Washington Capitals62%1.61
Regulation result (60 minutes)Washington Capitals51%1.94
Puck linePhiladelphia Flyers +1.565%1.54
Total goalsUnder 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Washington Capitals

62%fair 1.61

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Washington Capitals

51%fair 1.94

Puck line

Philadelphia Flyers +1.5

65%fair 1.54

Total goals

Under 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Washington Capitals

Last game: Oct 20

LT48ThompsonProjected

JK25KyrouLW DS17StromeC AT89TuchRW

1st line

9:53 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Jordan Kyrou LW	14:50	2	4	6
17	Dylan Strome C	18:59	1	5	6
89	Alex Tuch RW	18:59	5	2	7

19 points this season

AP21ProtasLW BJ22JennerC TW43WilsonRW

2nd line

8:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Aliaksei Protas LW	13:09	0	2	2
22	Boone Jenner C	17:51	4	1	5
43	Tom Wilson RW	17:40	2	3	5

12 points this season

AB72BeauvillierLW JB76BrodzinskiC RL9LeonardRW

3rd line

7:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Anthony Beauvillier LW	12:59	1	1	2
76	Jonny Brodzinski C	10:12	0	1	1
9	Ryan Leonard RW	17:31	4	4	8

11 points this season

AO8OvechkinLW IP62ProtasC IM63MiroshnichenkoRW

4th line

8:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Alex Ovechkin LW	16:21	1	3	4
62	Ilya Protas C	13:28	1	4	5
63	Ivan Miroshnichenko RW	10:34	1	0	1

10 points this season

JC6ChychrunD

3RoyD

1st pair

14:22 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5
3	Matt Roy D	17:30	0	0	0

5 points this season

MF42FehérváryD VD73DesharnaisD

2nd pair

11:19 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
42	Martin Fehérváry D	19:39	0	1	1
73	Vincent Desharnais D	15:33	0	3	3

4 points this season

CH44HutsonD TL27LiljegrenD

3rd pair

9:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Cole Hutson D	21:44	2	3	5
27	Timothy Liljegren D	12:44	1	0	1

6 points this season

DS17StromeF TW43WilsonF RL9LeonardF

AO8OvechkinF JC6ChychrunD

Power play unit 1

2:02 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Dylan Strome F	18:59	1	5	6
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
9	Ryan Leonard F	17:31	4	4	8
8	Alex Ovechkin F	16:21	1	3	4
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5

28 points this season

AT89TuchF AO8OvechkinF JK25KyrouF

IP62ProtasF CH44HutsonD

Power play unit 2

0:49 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Alex Tuch F	18:59	5	2	7
8	Alex Ovechkin F	16:21	1	3	4
25	Jordan Kyrou F	14:50	2	4	6
62	Ilya Protas F	13:28	1	4	5
44	Cole Hutson D	21:44	2	3	5

27 points this season

AT89TuchF TW43WilsonF

MF42FehérváryD

3RoyD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:55 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Alex Tuch F	18:59	5	2	7
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
42	Martin Fehérváry D	19:39	0	1	1
3	Matt Roy D	17:30	0	0	0

13 points this season

BJ22JennerF TW43WilsonF

JC6ChychrunD TL27LiljegrenD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:30 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Boone Jenner F	17:51	4	1	5
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5
27	Timothy Liljegren D	12:44	1	0	1

16 points this season

Goalies: Logan Thompson #48 (Projected) · Charlie Lindgren #79 (Backup)

Philadelphia Flyers

Last game: Oct 24

1st line

6:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
46	Trevor Zegras LW	15:42
22	Christian Dvorak C	16:38
52	Noel Acciari RW	11:04

AB20BumpLW

14CouturierC

71FoersterRW

2nd line

6:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
20	Alex Bump LW	12:24
14	Sean Couturier C	12:53
71	Tyson Foerster RW	12:39

NC27CatesLW PM94MartoneC

39MichkovRW

3rd line

5:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
27	Noah Cates LW	8:50
94	Porter Martone C	12:31
39	Matvei Michkov RW	12:59

JG78GaucherLW DB86BarkeyC CK54KnubleRW

4th line

3:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
78	Jacob Gaucher LW	5:53
86	Denver Barkey C	11:10
54	Cole Knuble RW	7:16

6SanheimD OB59BonkD

1st pair

10:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
59	Oliver Bonk D	13:22

9DrysdaleD

24SeelerD

2nd pair

7:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35
24	Nick Seeler D	14:44

55RistolainenD HM19McDonaldD

3rd pair

6:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
55	Rasmus Ristolainen D	13:04
19	Hunter McDonald D	8:42

46ZegrasF

39MichkovF PM94MartoneF

DB86BarkeyF

9DrysdaleD

Power play unit 1

4:13 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI
46	Trevor Zegras F	15:42
39	Matvei Michkov F	12:59
94	Porter Martone F	12:31
86	Denver Barkey F	11:10
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35

22DvorakF

71FoersterF AB20BumpF

6SanheimD OB59BonkD

Power play unit 2

1:47 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
71	Tyson Foerster F	12:39
20	Alex Bump F	12:24
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
59	Oliver Bonk D	13:22

Penalty kill unit 1

1:33 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
14	Sean Couturier F	12:53
6	Travis Sanheim D	21:42
24	Nick Seeler D	14:44

22DvorakF NC27CatesF

9DrysdaleD

55RistolainenD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:44 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI
22	Christian Dvorak F	16:38
27	Noah Cates F	8:50
9	Jamie Drysdale D	17:35
55	Rasmus Ristolainen D	13:04

Goalies: Joseph Woll #53 (Projected) · Dan Vladař #80 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (14)

Matt Roy · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Charlie Lindgren · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Trevor Zegras · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Christian Dvorak · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Noel Acciari · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Sean Couturier · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
Tyson Foerster · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Matvei Michkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Travis Sanheim · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Drysdale · StevenEllis546, Public domain
Nick Seeler · Sarah A., CC BY-SA 2.0
Rasmus Ristolainen · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joseph Woll · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dan Vladař · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Logan Thompson WAS

.901 save percentage

2.90 GAA · 4–3–0 · 7 starts

Joseph Woll PHI

.904 save percentage

2.99 GAA · 1–4–2 · 6 starts

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Joseph Woll · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Matvei MichkovPHI · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6532%3.14
Alex TuchWAS · RW · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5428%3.57
Boone JennerWAS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4327%3.68
Ryan LeonardWAS · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4525%3.95
Trevor ZegrasPHI · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3620%4.89
Jordan KyrouWAS · RW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2518%5.56
Cole HutsonWAS · D · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2316%6.12
Porter MartonePHI · RW · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2115%6.64
Christian DvorakPHI · C · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2215%6.74
Noel AcciariPHI · C · 1 G in 11 GP · 11 GP1111%8.87

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (4)

Matvei Michkov · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Trevor Zegras · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Christian Dvorak · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Noel Acciari · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers?

The numbers side with Washington Capitals (62%) at home against Philadelphia Flyers, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Washington Capitals have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Philadelphia Flyers have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Washington Capitals sit 12th in the Eastern Conference, while Philadelphia Flyers sit 15th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Washington Capitals rate +0.09 and Philadelphia Flyers −0.42 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.50 goals to Washington Capitals. Home ice is worth about 0.24 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Washington Capitals 51% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 0); the latest finished Philadelphia Flyers 1–5 Washington Capitals on 2026-09-26.

Our own lines for this game: Washington Capitals −1.5 on the puck line (35%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 50% (5.9 projected).

Washington Capitals to win, overtime and shootout included (62%). Projected score: 3–2.