Mestis

IPK vs KeuPa prediction

IPK8–1–2 · Home KeuPa5–6–2 · Away06:30 PMOct 29

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%IPK66%IPK

IPK to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 3–2

IPK are the pick at home against KeuPa: a 66% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

IPKIPK in 60'

56%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

KEUKeuPa in 60'

25%

Game flow

IPK 3.4 · KEU 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.8

P2 · 1.1–0.5

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)IPK66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)IPK56%1.78
Puck lineKeuPa +1.560%1.66
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

IPK

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

IPK

56%fair 1.78

Puck line

KeuPa +1.5

60%fair 1.66

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. VirtanenIPK · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8641%2.45
A. LausniemiIPK · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5427%3.71
J. JunkkariIPK · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3327%3.77
M. JarvenpaaKEU · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6524%4.23
V. HalonenIPK · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3321%4.74
M. AhvenlampiIPK · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3321%4.75
A. WolinKEU · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5420%4.94
K. WinqvistKEU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4320%4.98
N. KetonenKEU · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4316%6.30
E. HuttuKEU · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2114%7.37

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win IPK vs KeuPa?

IPK are the pick at home against KeuPa: a 66% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

IPK have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. KeuPa have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

IPK sit 1st, while KeuPa sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, IPK rate +0.40 and KeuPa −0.19 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.59 goals to IPK. Home ice is worth about 0.44 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives IPK 56% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (IPK 1, KeuPa 1); the latest finished IPK 3–4 KeuPa on 2026-10-10.

Our own lines for this game: IPK −1.5 on the puck line (40%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

IPK to win, overtime and shootout included (66%). Projected score: 3–2.