Mestis

RoKi vs KeuPa prediction

RoKi7–5–0 · Home KeuPa5–6–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%ROK66%ROK

RoKi to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 3–2

RoKi are the pick at home against KeuPa, with a 66% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ROKRoKi in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KEUKeuPa in 60'

25%

Game flow

ROK 3.4 · KEU 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.8

P2 · 0.9–0.6

P3 · 1.3–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)RoKi66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)RoKi55%1.83
Puck lineKeuPa +1.558%1.71
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

RoKi

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

RoKi

55%fair 1.83

Puck line

KeuPa +1.5

58%fair 1.71

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. SavolainenROK · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7635%2.89
T. AlankoROK · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5525%3.94
M. JarvenpaaKEU · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6525%4.02
E. KaarelaROK · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4324%4.09
M. MikkolaROK · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.22
A. WolinKEU · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5421%4.69
K. WinqvistKEU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.72
J. ManninenROK · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2219%5.19
N. KetonenKEU · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4317%5.97
E. HuttuKEU · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2114%6.97

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win RoKi vs KeuPa?

RoKi are the pick at home against KeuPa, with a 66% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

RoKi enter this Mestis meeting in fifth place, two spots above KeuPa in seventh, and the ratings back up that gap: adjusted for the opponents they have faced, RoKi sit at +0.19 goals per game against an average team while KeuPa are at −0.19, a 0.38-goal edge. Add home ice, worth about 0.48 goals a game in this league, and the case for the home side builds. The model's 66% win probability, overtime included, reflects that combined advantage rather than any single dominant factor.

Recent form tells a less one-sided story. RoKi have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring and conceding 3.2 goals a game over that stretch, so they have been level on the scoreboard at both ends. KeuPa have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6, which is the better run of results of the two. The underdog's case rests on that form and on a defence that has been tighter than RoKi's lately.

The head-to-head sample is thin: the teams have met once recently, and RoKi took it, with the latest game finishing KeuPa 2–5 RoKi on 2026-09-26. That result fits the ratings rather than contradicting them. The market sees the same picture — once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 6 bookmakers prices RoKi at 68%, close to the model's 66%.

A level game after 60 minutes is not a remote outcome here: about 20% of games like this one are tied at that point, which is why RoKi win in regulation only 55% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 66%. The projected 3–2 scoreline is consistent with a home win that is not comfortable, and it leaves the game balanced enough that KeuPa's recent scoring rate keeps them in it.

The projected 3–2 score puts the game at 5 goals, and against a 5.5 line the over lands 52% of the time on our numbers, with the model projecting 6.1 goals — a total that sits just above the line. On the puck line, RoKi −1.5 comes in 42% of the time, so a one-goal home win, exactly what the projected score shows, would not cover it. The moneyline is the cleaner side of the model's edge, with RoKi at 66% against a market price of 68% once the margin is removed.

RoKi to win, overtime and shootout included (66%), with a projected score of 3–2.