Mestis

Hermes vs RoKi prediction

Hermes4–4–4 · Home RoKi7–4–0 · Away03:30 PM UTCOct 23

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%HER51%HER

Hermes to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.95 · projected 3–2

Hermes are the narrow pick at 51% to beat RoKi, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

HERHermes in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

ROKRoKi in 60'

38%

Game flow

HER 2.8 · ROK 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.7–0.6

P3 · 1.3–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Hermes51%1.95
Regulation result (60 minutes)Hermes40%2.48
Puck lineRoKi +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 6.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Hermes

51%fair 1.95

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Hermes

40%fair 2.48

Puck line

RoKi +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 6.5

58%fair 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. HultHER · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5528%3.53
V. SavolainenROK · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6627%3.73
J. NiinistoHER · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5223%4.39
T. AlankoROK · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5422%4.49
E. KaarelaROK · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4422%4.65
E. MakiHER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3419%5.26
A. AholaHER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3418%5.53
J. ManninenROK · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2317%5.88
T. EkmanHER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3517%5.96
M. MikkolaROK · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3316%6.13

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Hermes vs RoKi?

Hermes are the narrow pick at 51% to beat RoKi, with a projected 3–2 final.

This is close to a coin flip, and the model's 51% for Hermes reflects that. Home ice is worth about 0.44 goals a game in Mestis, which is essentially the whole of Hermes' case. Strip that away and RoKi look the stronger side on adjusted numbers.

RoKi rate +0.21 goals per game against an average team, Hermes −0.11, an edge of 0.33 goals to the visitors. The table agrees: RoKi sit 5th, Hermes 7th. Recent form points the same way, with RoKi winning 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.0, against Hermes' 1 win in 5 at 2.8 scored and 3.6 allowed.

The head-to-head sample is tiny, one recent meeting, and it went badly for Hermes: RoKi 5–0 Hermes on 2026-09-12. That result sits awkwardly with a one-goal projection, but it is a single game. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Hermes 40%, with a 22% chance the game is tied after three periods and goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The market has landed in the same place. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, 8 bookmakers price Hermes at 51% on the moneyline, matching the model's number. There is no disagreement to exploit here, just a home-ice lean on a team that has been the weaker side by results and by rating.

The projected 3–2 scoreline leaves Hermes −1.5 on the puck line a long shot, coming in 29% of the time on our numbers. The projected 5.7 goals sits under the 6.5 line, and the under lands 58%, so the goals market offers the firmer case of the two. A one-goal game is the central expectation, which keeps the puck line out of reach more often than not.

Hermes to win, overtime and shootout included, at 51%, with a projected score of 3–2.