AHL

Ontario Reign vs Tucson Roadrunners prediction

Ontario Reign5–2–0 · Home Tucson Roadrunners3–2–2 · Away10:00 PMOct 30

43%win chance incl. overtime57%

Our pick

57%TUC57%TUC

Tucson Roadrunners to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.75 · projected 2–3

Tucson Roadrunners are the pick on the road against Ontario Reign: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ONTOntario Reign in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

TUCTucson Roadrunners in 60'

47%

Game flow

ONT 2.7 · TUC 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.5–1.2

P3 · 0.7–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tucson Roadrunners57%1.75
Regulation result (60 minutes)Tucson Roadrunners47%2.13
Puck lineOntario Reign +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Tucson Roadrunners

57%fair 1.75

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Tucson Roadrunners

47%fair 2.13

Puck line

Ontario Reign +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Ontario Reign vs Tucson Roadrunners?

Tucson Roadrunners are the pick on the road against Ontario Reign: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ontario Reign have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Tucson Roadrunners have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Ontario Reign sit 3rd in the Pacific Division, while Tucson Roadrunners sit 6th in the Pacific Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ontario Reign rate −0.12 and Tucson Roadrunners +0.19 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.31 goals to Tucson Roadrunners. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Tucson Roadrunners 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Tucson Roadrunners −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (6 projected).

Tucson Roadrunners to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.