Slovak Extraliga

Michalovce vs Dukla Trenčín prediction

Michalovce5–7–1 · Home Dukla Trenčín6–5–1 · Away05:30 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%MIC51%MIC

Michalovce to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 3–2

Michalovce are the pick at home against Dukla Trenčín: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

MICMichalovce in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

DUKDukla Trenčín in 60'

39%

Game flow

MIC 2.8 · DUK 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.0

P2 · 0.7–1.1

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Michalovce51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Michalovce41%2.43
Puck lineDukla Trenčín +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Michalovce

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Michalovce

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Dukla Trenčín +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. BarronDUK · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7332%3.15
J. DescheneauDUK · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6628%3.52
I. SafaraleyevMIC · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5427%3.75
H. ReesMIC · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5326%3.82
L. EdmondsMIC · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5324%4.16
J. VirtanenMIC · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4323%4.43
T. LindenDUK · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.84
D. LakatosDUK · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3519%5.28
M. KytnarMIC · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2116%6.35
J. SiskaDUK · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2214%7.20

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Michalovce vs Dukla Trenčín?

Michalovce are the pick at home against Dukla Trenčín: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Michalovce have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Dukla Trenčín have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Michalovce sit 10th, while Dukla Trenčín sit 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Michalovce rate −0.43 and Dukla Trenčín −0.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.41 goals to Dukla Trenčín. Home ice is worth about 0.46 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Michalovce win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Michalovce 0, Dukla Trenčín 1); the latest finished Dukla Trenčín 3–1 Michalovce on 2026-09-25.

Our own lines for this game: Michalovce −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 51% (5.8 projected).

Michalovce to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.