Czech Extraliga

Plzeň vs Třinec prediction

Plzeň7–4–1 · Home Třinec11–0–1 · Away05:30 PMOct 30

39%win chance incl. overtime61%

Our pick

61%TŘI61%TŘI

Třinec to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.65 · projected 2–3

Třinec are the pick on the road against Plzeň: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

PLZPlzeň in 60'

30%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

TŘITřinec in 60'

50%

Game flow

PLZ 2.4 · TŘI 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.8

P2 · 0.7–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Třinec61%1.65
Regulation result (60 minutes)Třinec50%1.99
Puck linePlzeň +1.566%1.50
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Třinec

61%fair 1.65

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Třinec

50%fair 1.99

Puck line

Plzeň +1.5

66%fair 1.50

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. MechuraPLZ · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6327%3.76
D. VozenilekTŘI · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7423%4.27
F. PyrochtaTŘI · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5222%4.51
M. KubiesaTŘI · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5422%4.53
V. PetmanPLZ · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4320%4.90
O. KovarcikTŘI · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5220%5.02
M. DanoTŘI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.30
M. TeplyPLZ · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4218%5.55
C. RobertsonPLZ · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3316%6.10
K. RubinsPLZ · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2213%7.49

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: D. Vozenilek: Zoner60, CC BY-SA 4.0; M. Kubiesa: Zoner60, CC0; O. Kovarcik: Zoner60, CC BY-SA 4.0; M. Dano: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Plzeň vs Třinec?

Třinec are the pick on the road against Plzeň: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Plzeň have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Třinec have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Plzeň sit 6th, while Třinec sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Plzeň rate −0.08 and Třinec +0.70 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.78 goals to Třinec. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Třinec win it in regulation only 50% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Plzeň 0, Třinec 1); the latest finished Třinec 3–2 Plzeň on 2026-09-19.

Our own lines for this game: Třinec −1.5 on the puck line (34%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.6 projected).

Třinec to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.