Liiga

Ässät vs HIFK prediction

Ässät9–5–2 · Home HIFK4–6–4 · Away06:30 PMOct 30

59%win chance incl. overtime41%

Our pick

59%ÄSS59%ÄSS

Ässät to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.69 · projected 3–2

Ässät are the pick at home against HIFK: a 59% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ÄSSÄssät in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

HIFHIFK in 60'

31%

Game flow

ÄSS 2.7 · HIF 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.6

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ässät59%1.69
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ässät48%2.06
Puck lineHIFK +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 4.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ässät

59%fair 1.69

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ässät

48%fair 2.06

Puck line

HIFK +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 4.5

62%fair 1.61

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. MakiahoHIF · 9 G in 15 GP · 15 GP9928%3.58
S. PinardÄSS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5424%4.16
E. LiukasHIF · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7322%4.49
I. PakarinenHIF · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6721%4.69
C. HillisÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4220%5.05
S. KostilainenÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4519%5.15
A. DoucetÄSS · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4219%5.15
J. OlofssonÄSS · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3117%5.78
L. VanhataloHIF · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4516%6.13
V. MarleauHIF · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4315%6.58

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ässät vs HIFK?

Ässät are the pick at home against HIFK: a 59% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ässät have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. HIFK have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Ässät sit 4th, while HIFK sit 15th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ässät rate +0.05 and HIFK −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.13 goals to Ässät. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ässät win it in regulation only 48% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 59%.

Our own lines for this game: Ässät −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 62% (5.2 projected).

Ässät to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.