Czech Extraliga

Mladá Boleslav vs Sparta Praha prediction

Mladá Boleslav4–8–1 · Home Sparta Praha5–5–2 · Away05:30 PMOct 30

43%win chance incl. overtime57%

Our pick

57%SPA57%SPA

Sparta Praha to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.76 · projected 2–3

Sparta Praha are the pick on the road against Mladá Boleslav: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

MLAMladá Boleslav in 60'

33%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

SPASparta Praha in 60'

46%

Game flow

MLA 2.4 · SPA 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.6

P2 · 1.1–0.7

P3 · 0.6–1.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Sparta Praha57%1.76
Regulation result (60 minutes)Sparta Praha46%2.17
Puck lineMladá Boleslav +1.570%1.42
Total goalsUnder 5.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Sparta Praha

57%fair 1.76

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Sparta Praha

46%fair 2.17

Puck line

Mladá Boleslav +1.5

70%fair 1.42

Total goals

Under 5.5

58%fair 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. SpacekSPA · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6326%3.84
D. ShoreSPA · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5125%4.05
M. RepikSPA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4119%5.15
J. SekacSPA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4119%5.27
F. GavarsMLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4219%5.29
M. BlumelSPA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3118%5.47
T. HykaMLA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2418%5.53
J. MartelMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3116%6.10
M. GardonMLA · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3416%6.14
A. MorandMLA · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2213%7.50

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Mladá Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?

Sparta Praha are the pick on the road against Mladá Boleslav: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Mladá Boleslav have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Sparta Praha have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Mladá Boleslav sit 12th, while Sparta Praha sit 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Mladá Boleslav rate −0.46 and Sparta Praha +0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.54 goals to Sparta Praha. Home ice is worth about 0.14 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Sparta Praha 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Mladá Boleslav 1, Sparta Praha 0); the latest finished Sparta Praha 3–5 Mladá Boleslav on 2026-09-22.

Our own lines for this game: Sparta Praha −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 58% (5.4 projected).

Sparta Praha to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.