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NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning7–2–0 · HomeWinnipeg Jets4–3–3 · Away
57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%TAM

Tampa Bay Lightning to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.74 · projected 3–2

Tampa Bay Lightning are the pick at home against Winnipeg Jets: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

TAM
47%
Tied → OT
21%
WIN
33%

Game flow

TAM 3.1 · WIN 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds
  • Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tampa Bay Lightning57%1.74
  • Regulation result (60 minutes)Tampa Bay Lightning47%2.14
  • Puck lineWinnipeg Jets +1.569%1.45
  • Total goalsUnder 5.550%2.00
  • Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last game: Oct 20

Forwards

  1. 1st line9 min together
    29LWHolmbergPontus28CGirgensonsZemgus95RWMikheyevIlya
  2. 2nd line4 min together
    21LWPointBrayden59CGuentzelJake93RWGoncalvesGage
  3. 3rd line4 min together
    38LWHagelBrandon71CCirelliAnthony86RWKucherovNikita

Defence

  1. 1st pair11 min together
    81DČernákErik27DMcDonaghRyan
  2. 2nd pair10 min together
    74DCarlsonJohn90DMoserJ.J.
  3. 3rd pair9 min together
    77DHedmanVictor78DLillebergEmil

Goalies

Winnipeg Jets

No line data yet.

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Pontus Holmberg: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Zemgus Girgensons: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; Ilya Mikheyev: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brayden Point: 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jake Guentzel: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Gage Goncalves: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Brandon Hagel: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0; Anthony Cirelli: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Kucherov: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Erik Černák: Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at; Ryan McDonagh: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; John Carlson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; J.J. Moser: Quintin Soloviev, CC BY-SA 4.0; Victor Hedman: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Andrei Vasilevskiy TAM

.898 save percentage

2.46 GAA · 5–2–0 · 7 starts

Stuart Skinner WIN

.912 save percentage

2.67 GAA · 3–1–3 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Andrei Vasilevskiy: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Stuart Skinner: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included
PlayerChanceFair odds

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: Brandon Hagel: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Kucherov: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Jake Guentzel: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Anthony Cirelli: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; John Carlson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets?

Tampa Bay Lightning are the pick at home against Winnipeg Jets: a 57% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Winnipeg Jets have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Tampa Bay Lightning sit 4th in the Eastern Conference, while Winnipeg Jets sit 10th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Tampa Bay Lightning rate +0.22 and Winnipeg Jets +0.01 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.21 goals to Tampa Bay Lightning. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Tampa Bay Lightning win it in regulation only 47% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 57%.

Our own lines for this game: Tampa Bay Lightning −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 50% (5.9 projected).

Tampa Bay Lightning to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2.

Team leaders

Tampa Bay LightningThis seasonWinnipeg Jets

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (9 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits: Brandon Hagel: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Kucherov: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Tampa Bay Lightning

W6–2W4–2W4–3L1–4W5–3

Winnipeg Jets

OTL2–3L1–2L2–3OTL3–4W5–2

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day