AHL

Hamilton Hammers vs Hartford Wolf Pack prediction

Hamilton HammersHome Hartford Wolf Pack4–5–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%HAR54%HAR

Hartford Wolf Pack to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 2–3

Hartford Wolf Pack are the pick on the road against Hamilton Hammers: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

HAMHamilton Hammers in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

HARHartford Wolf Pack in 60'

44%

Game flow

HAM 2.8 · HAR 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.2

P2 · 1.2–0.8

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Hartford Wolf Pack54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)Hartford Wolf Pack44%2.26
Puck lineHamilton Hammers +1.571%1.40
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Hartford Wolf Pack

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Hartford Wolf Pack

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Hamilton Hammers +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. GreentreeHAR · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4330%3.34
T. RaddyshHAR · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3123%4.44
A. BlidhHAR · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1116%6.16
G. GawdinHAR · 1 G in 7 GP · 7 GP1415%6.81
J. DowlingHAR · 1 G in 7 GP · 7 GP1015%6.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Hamilton Hammers vs Hartford Wolf Pack?

Hartford Wolf Pack are the pick on the road against Hamilton Hammers: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Hamilton Hammers have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Hartford Wolf Pack have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Hamilton Hammers rate −0.35 and Hartford Wolf Pack −0.21 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.14 goals to Hartford Wolf Pack. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Hartford Wolf Pack win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

Our own lines for this game: Hartford Wolf Pack −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Hartford Wolf Pack to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.