National League

Lugano vs Lausanne prediction

Lugano6–6–1 · Home Lausanne7–7–1 · Away08:00 PMOct 29

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%LUG54%LUG

Lugano to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Lugano (54%) at home against Lausanne, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LUGLugano in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LAULausanne in 60'

37%

Game flow

LUG 3.3 · LAU 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.6

P2 · 1.1–1.2

P3 · 1.2–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lugano54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lugano44%2.26
Puck lineLausanne +1.571%1.42
Total goalsOver 6.551%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes92%1.08

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lugano

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lugano

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Lausanne +1.5

71%fair 1.42

Total goals

Over 6.5

51%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

92%fair 1.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. InnalaLUG · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9639%2.56
C. ThurkaufLUG · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7431%3.22
A. SimicLAU · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6426%3.86
L. FazziniLUG · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5425%3.96
S. RuegseggerLAU · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5325%4.07
A. SuomelaLAU · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4624%4.19
D. RiatLAU · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5723%4.30
R. TannerLUG · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4223%4.31
N. ShoreLUG · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3520%4.95
D. CaggiulaLAU · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4619%5.18

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Lugano vs Lausanne?

The numbers side with Lugano (54%) at home against Lausanne, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Lugano have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Lausanne have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Lugano sit 10th, while Lausanne sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Lugano rate +0.01 and Lausanne 0.00 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.01 goals to Lugano. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Lugano 44% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Lugano 1, Lausanne 0); the latest finished Lausanne 2–5 Lugano on 2026-10-07.

Our own lines for this game: Lugano −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (6.6 projected).

Lugano to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.